RE:Due Dilligence Analysis: Is ANX Undervalued? (part 2)In late February, I published 2 posts (Due Dilligence Analysis: Is ANX Undervalued?
part 1 &
part 2) regarding some due diligence I did comparing ANX to MOZ in order to predict what could be the fair market cap value of ANX based on the new resource estimate that was just published for Goldboro. With this analysis, I tried to answer this question: "
How much Mr. market should re-rate ANX with the new RE and how will the coming milestones (PEA, FS, Financing) will influence this re-rate short term?"
On Thursday, MOZ announced a $50M financing after having published their Feasability Study in April and providing lot of drill results during the last month. For ANX, we are approaching the first big catalyst mentionned in my DD but there was a lot less action on the "positive news flow side" compared to MOZ.
I think now it's a good time to review the prediction I have done in my analysis for ANX. Here is the conclusion I published in late February:
DoumDiDoum wrote: So Mr. Market, here is what you should expect paying for an ANX share if management continues its excellent work and the story gets promoted properly at current gold price:
- New resource estimate when you will have digest the numbers: $1.00 per share
- Publishing of the PEA in Q2: $1.50 per share
- Publishing of the FS in Q4: $2.25 per share
For sure, macro factors like gold price, drill results, unexpected events like a deadly third COVID-19 wave or Point-Rousse lock down or any other risks can greatly impact these predictions up or down.
So my $1.00 a share did not happen as it looks like Mr. Market did not "diggest" the new RE. In fact, we went from 80 cents to 67... not good at all. For sure, the bad Q1 results did not help which was in the category of the "other risk" I mentionned . But even with the bad Q1 results at Point-Rousse, we should have been a lot more closer to a buck than today.
Now what about my SP target of $1.50 for the publishing of the PEA which is due soon? Well, with the rising gold price and people coming back in the gold junior sector, it's still possible. There was a lot of profit taking around 80 cents since I published the results of my DD in late February and it gave a lot of pressure on the SP. There was some good promotion with Kevin and Rob doing lot of webinars and also the spot on BTV, but this promotion only allowed some long time shareholders to flood the market with shares, taking some profit out of the table.
But this selling was done on low volume. So no panic selling here. It means the coil has been pushed really slowly and it's really near springing IMO. Goldboro excellent RE has not been fully valued and with what is currently happening with gold, the timing could be fantastic when people will realize that the "lowest cost gold producer in Canada" is only valued at a little bit more than $100M. Let's hope that the "quiet" period from Kevin and Rob is only meaning that a stunt move on the promotion side is in preparation... you need to be oustanding guys. You need to make THE BEAST shine!
Hang on there folks... we are getting really close to our next up leg!
GLTA