When is the right time to rejoin the party?Let me first start with an observation.
Companies like Rio Tinto, Alcoa, Granges, Rusal and others will become part of the new to build ‘scandium ecosystem’. Their go-to-market strategy – roadmap/framework they follow while bringing a new product to market - is much simpler than SCY’s. Here’s why:
- Much closer to the end users
- Enormous execution power (funds, people, etc.)
- They can leverage existing networks/relationships, distribution channels and supply chains
- Already have a huge customer base
Therefore, the ‘heavy lifting’ or 'solving the chicken and egg problem' is better left to these majors. I believe that SCY came to this realization - after trying very hard – and chose to chase (other) opportunities in well established markets instead.
But they will be back and here’s why. I will use the ‘product diffusion curve’ to explain this. Consumers can be grouped according to how quickly they adopt a new product.
https://www.quickmba.com/marketing/product/diffusion/ Right now, the innovators (majors mentioned above) are at play. We’re in the very early stage of development, in search for success stories where parts have been replaced by AlSc parts (for example in the EV industry). As you can see at this stage only 2.5% of the potential customers is engaged.
Companies like SCY come into play to cross the chasm, from the early adopters to the early majority. The early majority tends to avoid risks, they will only incorporate ‘proven technology’ into their products. They rely heavily on recommendations from current users (the early adopters). The early majority could include major car (EV) brands. The ability to
produce high volumes (and be able to scale up when necessarily) is key to crossing the chasm – and that’s when I believe SCY will rejoin the ‘party’.
But who knows, some visionary may come into action much earlier in the game: close a deal with SCY or may want to own the company.