Reality for SU shareholdersWith 17 million share MOC/LOC crosses, there is nothing that any can do or say that is going to affect the share price.
The fate of the share price in the short term is in the hands of the players getting positioned, whether it be in or out.
ENB has experienced MOC/LOC crosses totalling a billion shares (half of the ENB float) since last July. The 13F reports account for less than 100 million shares sold from the crosses. The loopholes allowing the behavior essentially make the filing of 13F reports a joke. Either somebody has accumulated a hidden majority interest in ENB, or more likely, the company itself has been complicit in the orderly transitionof ownership from those that want/need to exit "anything oil" into the hands of those that are willing to own an undesirable name in exchange for significantly higher returns. At some point, the inordinately large end of day crosses will come to an end.
The reason that I bring up the ENB example is that it looks like SU has entered the same process and it is likely to take awhile. The fact that SU is buying back 40 million shares just helps the transition along.
As far as the crying about dividends vs buybacks vs debt repayment, give me a break. They are all the same thing in the big picture. If you don't want to wait for the payoff, sell and move on. Whining about it won't help.
Regardless of who owns the shares, the company is going to pay back shareholders the equivalent of $21 per share in the next 4 1/2 years if the price of WTI ends up being US$55. If the price of WTI ends up staying where it is at US$65, add another $18 per share to the payback. If the price of Brent goes to US$80 as suggested by Goldman Sachs, then you can add another $18 per share give or take as Brent would then be US$75.
One poster PM'd me today indicating that he thought SU was unloved and boring. He got the unloved part right, and that is why the company is making the right decision with its NCIB.