Notgnu wrote: True, I am a speculator and I do not have any material unknown information so I model not just one "if" as you put it but several. To me it is all about contingencies and, even more important, alignment of incentives.
Malfeasance, manipulation and treachery are part and parcel of the history of economic progress for humans. But we still do not kill each other en masse or we would not be here... so why? In general our systems have evolved or adapted to have co-operation as a constraint on competition. This is why we have laws, rules and regulations otherwise we would break into pure tribalistic violence.
What does this have to do with Pumkin pie?
Well, if NCi runs low on cash due to more short term problems (putting aside earthquakes, war, pestilence and famine for the moment) such as not being able to get enough ore to the surface due to (what is possibly the last of a list of typical start-up issues) an extra week or two money burn rate while grouting the water coming through the dike formation then what?
One could say oh... no more money to pay vendors... everyone gone home now... come on vamoush... out a here... none of you are getting paid and then yes, bill collectors would come looking for payments on credit extended and when it wasn't forthcoming they would start proceeding to force a bankruptcy or a restructuring.
Now, when we deal in the currency of "ifs'' we must ask if this is the likely next course of action. Here is where I slam the gavel of judgement down and say, NO. At $4.60 copper that is the absolute least likely to happen. Why, everyone loses (multilevel Jeopardy.)
What is more likely is the extension of some more credit from one of the several lenders (Bridgeloan Tires for your fires to keep you cozy at night.)
Possible that these would have some debt to equity clauses (wouldn't you want one if you ponied up?) Another contingency would be a 10% dilution at some price that is around today's price but so what? It would mean we get cash to keep going and get the copper out and pay us big time at the expense of something that is already doubly discounted into the stock NCU.
If the above were occurring at $2.50 copper then yes, that type of thing would be the final toilet flush but it isn't... Frankly, Dr. Copper stepped up and said "F -it I'll give you the money. Hell yeah. Have my banker boy draw up a little document and done deal."
To sum up (here is the place you can skip down to if you haven't already) I think "IF" there is another cash need it will come and haters will hate and the stock price will do what it will but the company marches on. Then I do what every man does... cry in silence... no, just kidding, what I do is just not give a flying fkkckck and go camping and sleeping in the back of the ole' car for a few months until Mike and da boys show me da money.
That is the only, and very unlikely "if" at this point, otherwise it is cash flow cometh like the broken water of last year's babe.
Cheers,
N
Fishbillion wrote: Due to alot of pm requesting my analysis....the 3 major reasons for the laggy price... 1. The going concern.... ncu has a risk of insolvency... they even self stated they maynot have enough cash to finish mine ramp up... 2. They have been having alot of trouble with the mine ramp up... alot... from stiffing contractors, water, elect, ventilation , cash.... ect... 3. They currently donot have a producing mine.... till a few months away ( hopefully) This is the reality...snots i like your optimism.... but your "dd" is all based on "ifs"