GREY:NEVDQ - Post by User
Comment by
Notgnuon May 29, 2021 1:25pm
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Post# 33292683
RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Nothing but tailwinds for years to come!
RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Nothing but tailwinds for years to come! Excellent ramblings... Lines up quite a bit with my own view.
Thanks and keep it going whenever the coffee (or whatever) powered fuel kicks in again.
Cheers,
N
metalhead666 wrote: Since I'm rambling today...
A couple of other notes here....I do not and will not own any mining project no matter how good it is outside of N. America, Australia and in the case of lithium, Europe. Mining has to be the absolute worst business on the planet. They consume cash by the truckload, they take forever, they have endless problems and issues, they eat their seed corn....but they can make you rich if you get it right. How do you get it right?
You stay away from 3d world $hitoles
You make sure management has skin in the game
You make sure they have the resource
You make sure there's a clear pathway to production
You respect the Lasonde Curve.....should be your bible
You don't bet on brownfield drillers...you'll lose more than you win...fact
You stay the course and let good projects create long term value....the Ross Beaty method...should be your god.
You get the big picture right
You don't trade but you do harvest some gains along the way
You don't use margin
You don't buy options
You hedge against market risk...fat tail hedging because it happens.
As much as I don't like Taseko management and their absolutely uselss IR do nothing lump....I love Florence. TGB raised the money so they get credit for that. They took their time with Florence and proved it unlike the clowns over at Excelsior who are going to go bust and we are only months away from turning on the biggest money printer in the US. Here's where the Lasonde Curve comes in.....as soon as that final permit comes through we make the construction call and enter the absolute sweet spot ...the period of time between ground breaking and full production. Historically this has always provided investors with the greatest returns. Florence goes from the "orphan" period to the ramp to nameplate capacity period which will see its share price reflect the certainty that comes with construction progress and ramp up to full production. There will be years and years of millions of pounds of copper coming out of the ground as ridiculous profit margins. On to Yellowhead and NP? Oh yeah. Just as the world is hitting peak copper deficits we'll be hitting peak production at Florence and maybe have plans in the works for Yellowhead....the world will be screaming for more copper and we're going to have it. In my 40 years of investing I've never seen as good a set up as I see now. Ever.
Same holds for Western Copper and Gold although I don't care about gold anymore....WRN will be bought out....Nevada Copper is a pure play turn around story that's going to go from the edge of the abyss to a major player.
Same holds for my two lithium picks...even more so...both are nearing the sweet spot of the Lasonde Curve with Vulcan ramping up its pilot plant as we speak to 24/7 status and European Metals only 6 months from its feasibility study and their construction decision...with the full backing of the EU and local governments mind you.
It doesn't get any better than this. Every tailwind...right place, right time....big resource that's only going to grow demand, great ESG scoring, cheap costs, right location, blue sky potential...everything you could ever want and none of them in Mexico, Chile or the Congo
BOOYAH! Yeah, I'm pumped....made a lot of money so far but the best is yet to be.
And I'm hedged against the absurd market which unfortunately does impact the share price of even the best ideas and projects. S&P puts 30% out of the money, 2 months out that I roll every month....insurance premium that's a small price to pay to guard against a crash in the bloated overall market. Hopefully I never cash them in but with them I can hold more shares in my 5 names than I normally would dare to at this point in the bubble market.
So there ya go....I felt like rambling...hope it is of some value to you even as most of you are pretty sophisticated speculators and investors
If any of you want details on my picks that you might not know about feel free to ask.