RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Refreshing honesty I agree with you, and I don't buy a stock based on this reasoning. That said it does paint a good base picture on where it is and you look into this deeper on why something is floating off historical numbers. I personally feel in this case tho it is fairly accurate within a range. Atleast I'm throwing numbers and analysis out there, not just pulling numbers outta thin air and trying to create value things based on just opinion. We have a bunch of people saying it should be higher, saying they don't know why it's stuck and give a large target, but they are only opinions, interpretations and expectations. I've atleast spent time creating a model for reasoning of my opinion, please build on it and make it better and use data.
Take a look at this data feed:
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/TSE/DIV/dividend/
25 of the past 75 months (33%) the dividend has come when the Yeild is above 8.50%
30 of the past 75 months (40%) the dividend has come when the Yeild is above 8.25%
34 of the past 75 months (45%) the dividend has come when the Yeild is above 8%
30 of the past 75 months (40%) the dividend has come when the Yeild is below 7.50%
19 of the past 75 months (25%) the dividend has come when the Yeild is below 7.00%
6 of the past 75 months (8%) the dividend has come when the Yeild is below 6.50%
42% of the time the dividend is between 7-8.5%
At the current dividend rate of 20 cents:
6.5% yeild equals a price of $3.07, 92% of the time the price will be lower
7% yeild equals a price of $2.85, 75% of the time the price will be lower
7.5% yeild equals a price of $2.66, 60% of the time the price will be lower
At an expected dividend of 24 cents per year:
6.5% yeild equals a price of $3.69, again 92% of the time it will be lower
7% yeild equals a price of $3.43, again 75% of the time it will be lower and this is the pre Covid top
7.5% yeild equals a price of $3.20 again 60% of the time it will be lower
Pre-Covid it spent 27 of 28 months below 8%
Before that 28 month stretch it spent 22 months above 8%
Since Covid it spent 11 of 15 months above 8%
Only 15 of the past 75 months (20%) has the stock traded "When firing on all cylinders the stock should and has traded at a 6.5 to 7% yeild max."
The historical data really does not at all support that claim based on this metric, and when it hits that it's a short term top. That's has been done in a 8 month strech in late 2017- mid 2018 which is well before Covid and also before late 2015. And 75% of the time the stock has traded above your "7% yeild max"
The stock may reach a top of $3 on the current dividend, but I'd hardly say it should be there and that's it's value.
The Stock may reach a top of $3.40 on the expected dividend that was pre Covid, but data says it shouldn't stay there and that's its value.
I would say pretty much where it is now is what data projects is in the range of where it should be and given better circumstances it will rise but not majorly. And if anything it's at the higher end of that range of what we can call normal value, so I'd say a little overvalued.
Please present a case based on some sorta data, not claims and interpretations. Present one on Price to earnings, price to book give me some other data point that shows me that my expectations of how to value this are majorly flawed.
And I will point out again, not saying there's a problem with the stock or anything like that, I enjoy holding it and have no plans to sell it, just if your looking for a good value play, the stock has some room to run, but it's not at a discount thus isn't not a buy, it's a just a nice hold and I don't have huge expectations of the price to run up, if it does great, but I know it's not likely to maintain that over the long haul, so if your planning on keeping it long term, be realistic with yourself.
I would not look at purchasing DIV unless the dividend yeild is or can expect to be above 8.25% as I don't feel it's a good deal, I don't look at buying BCE unless the dividend yeild is above 5%, CNR at 1.8%, Mortgage based financials sector at 8%... If I'm looking for dividend based stocks that are good deals, I have base data point of investigation that if not achieved is a non-starter based on historical datas. If this base case is achieved or is close, I dive in and look at other parts of the company and see if I'm interested.