H2 2021 Zinc Price Prediction International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) had forecast that zinc mine production would grow by almost 5% over the course of 2020. This meant that smelters would have abundant supply of Zinc Concentrate. It was reflected in 2020 benchmark TC being set at a very high level of $300 per tonne, the highest since 2008.
Covid-19 hit and mines around the world were forced to suspend or curtail production. Spot TC started tumbling reflecting the reduction in Zinc Mine Production. In fact, global Zinc Mine Production fell by 5.9% in 2020 according to ILZSG’s assessment. Mined output fell in Bolivia, Burkina Faso, China, Finland, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Peru, Sweden, Turkey and the United States, according to the ILZSG.
The slump in this year’s benchmark TC to $159 per tonne is a reflection of this simple fact. However, the benchmark TC is much higher than the spot TC which is presently around $70 per tonne and kept falling throughout the 1st quarter of 2021. This reflects that the major miner (Teck Resources) and the major Refiners (Glencore & Korea Zinc), at the time of finalizing the benchmark TC for 2021 were of the view that Zinc Mine Production will recover in the H2 2021 and consequently spot TC will recover to around $235 per tonne by the end of 2021 thereby averaging the spot TC for the year to around $159 per tonne.
However, the recovery from Covid-19 is proving to be slower than anticipated. Vaccines rollout in 3rd world countries is very slow or non-existent. I anticipate the Zinc Concentrate shortage to persist longer than anticipated by the major Miners and major Refiners.
There is no shortage of refined metal. Despite last year’s collapse in mine output, global refined production rose by 1.2%, according to ILZSG, which estimates the market registered a supply surplus of 533,000 tonnes of metal in 2020. Some of that surplus has evidently gone into the LME system.
As the Zinc Refineries keep using more Zinc Concentrate than what is being produced by the Mines, the Concentrate market will keep getting tighter and the spot TC will keep falling.
In the last 12 years, the lowest benchmark TC was $147 per tonne in 2018. The Mined Zinc Concentrate scarcity had pushed the Zinc price to a decade high of $3,596 per tonne that year. With benchmark TC at $159 this year, I can definitely say that Zinc price will reach at least $3,400 per tonne in H2 2021.
If my thesis that the major Miner (Teck Resources) and the Major Refiners (Glencore & Korea Zinc) erred in anticipating the timing of recovery from Covid-19 turns out to be true, it would mean that the benchmark TC was set too high for 2021. To reflect the Concentrate market properly, it should have been set at around $110 per tonne. I have more than 90% confidence in my thesis and can therefore say with 90% confidence that the Zinc price will actually peak anywhere between $3,600 and $3,800 per tonne in H2 2021.
IMHO