RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Refreshing honesty
babedinkleman wrote: "19 of the past 75 months (25%) the dividend has come when the Yeild is below 7.00%" and "6 of the past 75 months (8%) the dividend has come when the Yeild is below 6.50%" ......so 25 months of the the past 75 months (33% of the time) the yeild has traded between 6 and 7 percent.
Just so you know, the months below 7% already includes the months below 6.5% so you don't need to add them together...
And I haven't misled anything, I'm giving FACTUAL data that everyone can see and pull.
What would be a date area that you would say the company completed its transition?
If you wanna say 9/27/17 and exclude Covid after 2/12/20 then of those 28 months in that period, 14 of them were at 7% or below.
At that time they paid 1.85 cent dividend or 22.2 cents per year and at 7% would give you a price of $3.17 so 50% of the time it was above or below that number, so let's call that the value area for that period that dividend is further ahead of the current dividend of 20 cents. 2.2 cents added .31 cents of value at 7%
In the last 3 months before Covid the dividend was raised to 1.92 cents or 23 cents per year, at 7% that gives you a price of $3.29. In those 3 months the value was only below 7.25% once. That said it's normal when the divided is adjusted there is a few months of catch-up period for the price to re-equalize for the dividend.
So if you wanna say that's a normal snapshot of the company for everyone, when firing on all cylinders, of where the company should be at 7% or lower which was achieved 50% of the time pre Covid, that at the current dividend of 20 cents the value of the company should be 2.85 on current dividend and 3.43 on 24 cents dividend which is a higher dividend than the company has had in the past. (The extra 1 cent of dividend at 7% = 14 cents of added value)
I can accept that but currently that value is below $3 and after the new expected dividend it is below $3.50. We should note that as per the data at the top of this, 50% of the time it will trade below those figures. From current price let's say that's $1 upside which would be 40% upside on average value ($1 divided by current price of $2.5 = .4 if I've done this correctly)
By those numbers the company is not currently overvalued, but still well below That target price declared for $4. And furthermore, on current numbers below $3 which a few people are saying we should be at now. Those calls may be 'tops' for trading but they are not where the company should be priced.
Are we good with those maths?