RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Refreshing honesty Capharnaum wrote: Let me start by saying that I am not currently a shareholder of DIV (I'm following as I may jump in at some point).
I do believe that the premise which is stock trades at a multiple of the dividend is flawed. It is possible for a stock that pays a stable payout ratio with stable no risk interest rates over a really long time that the stock price matches directly the yield on a multiple basis.
However, considering that the no risk interest rates changes, the value of the stable dividend payout from a royalty company should also change. The premium over the no risk interest rates should stay relatively constant over time. If the premium is 6%, then at a no risk rate of 2%, the share price multiple would be 12.5x yield. However, if the no risk rate goes down to 0%, then the share price multiple should change to 16.7x yield, keeping the same premium of 6%.
Considering that rates are at a low point (but expected to go up in the mid term), it is reasonable to think that the multiple on the share price would be higher than it was 5 years ago.
Also, I do believe that the payout ratio has changed over the years for DIV. I may be wrong because I'm going from memory, but I think 5 years ago, the payout ratio based on cashflow was over 100% (around 120%?). The latest payout ratio was around 100%. A payout ratio today of 100% compared to a payout ratio of 120% five years ago should affect the multiple applied to the share price (based on yield). After all, otherwise, the company could just raise the payout ratio artifically. So, if my memory serves me right, the yield of 8% at 120% payout ratio would be the equivalent of 6.7% at 100% payout ratio.
In all those calculations, the cash on hand also plays a role, which could explain why the yield is still 8%.
My personal opinion on DIV is that it is currently fairly valued based on its operating metrics. There is some upside based on some of their royalty streams improving and there is some downside based on higher anticipated no risk interest rates.
Excellent post, this is the kinda convo I want to see and have.
Yes, my price off yeild is flawed and but gave a novice base for someone to come along with better data points. But if your numbers from memory are accurate, we are in the same region as my original argument is that we are at an expected value, but if I was a buyer I'd want a better deal thus I said it was overvalued.
Seeking Alpha (& Motley Fool) is great for people presenting analysis but it is almost all US based with a very few doing Canadian analysis. This board seems almost all Canadian based with a little bit of American info/posters. I would like to see these boards have people giving great analysis for discuss like you can find on Seeking Alpha/Fool. (Which you brought, and I'm attempting)