RE:RE:Stocks trading at 1 x EBITDAI agree mostly with your points as it is unwise to look at their low p/e multiple and their low EV/EBITDA multiple to think it it is a good buy. Low multiples suggest that we are at the top of the cycle. Even though we're in the midst of a supercycle lumber stocks are still highly clyclical. If these lumber prices persist into Q3 then maybe the multiples should push higher.
Usually forestry stocks recieve EV/EBITDA multiples of 4 - 7 but it is innapropriate to give such a multiple to their 2021 EBITDA estimate at the top of the cycle.
I'm riding out the volatility regardless, full disclosure I have 45k riding on this. ~88% of my portfolio with the rest being cash ready to buy on market overreactions. I'm confident lumber prices wont fall as much as analysts and the market are suggesting. There's a good chance lumber stocks can break out of the cycle when lumber finds a new floor.
My belief is coming this August/September will be the make it or break it period for these lumber stocks. We'll see how demand plays out after the summer and how it affects lumber prices.