RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:No tradesThis is the question we probably all ask ourselves as we lay our head down to go to bed and think about the day. Our situation makes it very easy to belive we've gotten it wrong (the big picture view, as it's up 50% from those lows now in the shorter term). But likely we all have some shares we've bought that are underwater in this bull market and we feel doubt on our view creep in. It's especially there when we thought we had some momentum (twice now) with both volume and interest, only to see it fade away and not sustain itself into every higher levels of valuation.
When you see what appear to be clearly positive corporate developments that don't lead to what other comparable companies are seeing in their valuation it can only be a few things -- the developments aren't as clear cut as other firms are (the Qwerty point)-- in fact, they are far more risky; it is overlooked and ignored given both past issues and the unfortunate lack of analyst coverage, the IR efforts are not reaching the right investors and not enough investors, or there's not enough meat-on-the-bones in both the drugs and the pipeline to narrow down possible valuation scenarios. Many here have covered all these points lately.
It's probably a bit of all of this. If we assume Mr. Market is theoretically always correct since it's the equlibrium of the current buyers and sellers informed view points, then we can't really argue it's wrong. It's right and we are wrong as of now. We won't really know the full answer to this question until we see further factual evidence that can help narrow down and inform the valuation so it moves off from what we think is this undervalued/ignored zone. There's just not enough scientific movemen and fundamental developments to alleviate the downside portion of the valuation that has kept a cap on the price. It won't breakout to new levels until the science, the pipeline or the revenues break out to new levels. I hope they realize that they need to take a risk with presenting some evidence, some interim reads, some scientific facts coming from all their work that informs the market such that it can support those higher levels. Without it, we're just withering on the vines and not making a potential 100 point wine. We just need to see the science develop more such that the worst case scenarios are not in the plans and there is a much higher likelihood of the best case scenarios coming into view. You all have laid out the process by which they can present the science for the market to value, let's just hope they do it.
I can allay my doubts by believing that the current drugs provide a nice chunk of value and that both programs are assets that, even if they stumble, you could likely sell for a nice profit or partner with someone capable. In other words, the downside doesn't look large to me in the medium term view.
Lee430 wrote: It's always darkest before the Great Rebrand?? This is really testing my faith,
so collectively do we have it right, does Mr. Market have it right or is this simply an IR failure? stockman75 wrote: I sure hope you are right but I have hard time finding that optimism.
SPCEO1 wrote: There is still time for TH to avoid that fate. But there is no denying the week is off to a slow start. Hopefully, what we are seeing is the calm before they unleash an IR storm and that their time is being consumed by putting the finishing touches on the Great Rebranding. Maybe we can move on from the OO to the GR.
stockman75 wrote: I am going to go out on a strong limb and guess we get another D to F report this week!