RE:Generation Poised to Double or Triple later this year This is a very good summary of the high-points.
I am an investor, but to play devil's advocate, here are the low-points I see:
Risk 1: Sibanye doesn't do anything (i.e., they don't go to 51% and they don't go for 100%). This would have an immediate negative impact on the share price, in my opinion.
A $150M market cap company trying to build at $600M mine is fraught with risks. It is very possible they will do it, but the risks are high. It also increases the wait time for significant share appreciation. Right now, the catalyst is Sibanye deciding what to do. If they do nothing, the catalysts are drill resutls, permits, financing, etc., which are very boring compared to a take-over proposal. This stock could be stuck <$1 for years if Sibanye doesn't do anything. If selling shares becomes necessary to finance part of the mine, yikes. Sibanye doing nothing may be best for shareholders long term but most people don't have that kind of patience.
Risk 2: Commodity prices drop significantly. There's no reason to expect they will, but commodity prices have wild swings all the time. Is it reasonable to expect palladium and copper will still be high in 3+ years? Yes, but that is no guarantee.
A combination of Sibanye dedicing to do nothing and commodity prices dropping could have a very negative and lengthy impact on the share price.
Eyes wide open!