RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:CJ and Nuttal So I've taken some time and ran numbers on Nuttel's fund and how the market has moved and let's see if we can make assumptions together and create some sorta vision, I'll show my work as I go.
On March 31st his fund was worth 339.364 Million
Company - Pecentage of Fund - Share Price - Estimated Value Millions
Parex - 9.9% - 22.51 - 33.6
Tamarack - 9.8% - 2.37 - 33.3
NuVista - 9.1% - 2.37 - 30.9
Seven Generations - 8.8% - 8.50 - 29.9
MEG - 8.6% - 6.52 - 29.2
Cenovus - 8.3% - 9.44 - 28.2
Athabasca - 8.1% - 0.53 - 27.5
Cardinal - 7.7% - 2.62 - 26.1
Enerplus - 7.4% - 6.31 - 25.1
Whitecap - 5.7% - 5.52 - 19.3
Crescent Point - 4.6% - 5.24 - 15.6
Trican - 4.6% - 2.07 - 15.6
Baytex - 3.5% - 1.31 - 11.9
Gear - 3% - 0.51 - 10.2
Cash - 2.1% - XXX - 7.1
Touchstone 0.9% - 2.34 - 3
So what I did above is divided the worth of the fund at the Quarterly Report by his posted percentage and rounded to create a dollar amount in the millions as a base estimate... keyword ESTIMATE... Everything calculated forward is based off that
With the chart released on April 30th and the closing share price of each company I've calculated the following chart... be aware for the calculations I've assumed he has kept the same share counts which I will discuss below the chart.
April 30th
Company - Share Price - Estimated Value Millions
Tamarack - 2.57 - 36.1
Parex - 23.15 - 34.6
NuVista - 3.32 - 30.2
Enerplus - 6.61 - 26.3
Athabasca - 0.60 - 31.1
Cenovus - 9.57 - 28.6
MEG - 6.79 - 30.4
Cardinal - 2.70 - 26.9
Baytex - 1.46 - 13.3
Whitecap - 5.38 - 18.8
Crescent Point - 4.85 - 14.4. (Not included on his Top 10 list)
So I took the March 31st estimated value, divided by the share price to give and approx share count in the millions, I then took that number and multiplied it by the share price on April 30th and that gives me my estimated value for that month...
Obviously Seven Generations is missing on the April chart because the Arc deal closed, it sold on April 6th and at a share price of 8.46 I got a value of 29.8 million if he held it to the end.
We don't know where the money received from this transaction went because obviously he did not hold Arc at end of the month.
You right away notice Enerplus, Cenovus and Baytex are a little outta wack, and NuVista was lower than Athabasca but higher on the list. I've also assumed he still held Creseant Point and calculated it as his 11th holding.
The next list I used the same calculations and came up with this:
May 31st
Company - Share Price - Estimated Value Millions
Athabasca - 0.77 - 39.9
Baytex - 2.00 - 18.2
Canadian Natural - 42.36 - ???
Cenovus - 10.09 - 30.1
Crescent Point - 5.06 - 15.1
Enerplus - 8.15 - 32.4
MEG - 8.39 - 37.6
Parex - 21.12 - 31.5
Tamarack - 2.66 - 37.4
Whitecap - 6.11 - 21.4
Cardinal - 3.27 - 32.6 (Not included on his Top 10 list)
So there are many issues with the values and this list, some of it might be my estimates from chart 1 and some of it is likely stuff we dont know, but we can discuss some of these, but there are things I think that are somewhat accurate...
So the best 'Control' on this list seems like Athabasca, using its original values and then follow up calculations, if the same share count is maintained you can see how it became the Top of the latest list at almost 40 million and it looks like it belongs.
I like Parax as anouther good Control, as you can see its movement easily and it makes sense as the price has moved.
The only changes we see from April 30th to May 31st are:
- NuVista is pretty much replaced by Canadian Natural, If we assume he sold NuVista at about 2.90 after the run up, he got about 37.8 million and if we guess he takes that directly puts it into Canadian Natural, it fits in perfectly below Athabasca.
- Also Crescent Point appears on the list and Cardinal falls off, Crescent Point was sitting 11th the first 2 lists so someone has to replace it on the latest. The only issue with this is that the value of Crescent Point shows too low and Cardinal's is too high by my numbers.
I can try and make guess on a few differences on calculations on the rest of this list and this is where we can discuss some things more meaningful.
So first, let's allow my calculations are off in some places and allow for some room for error.
We don't have an idea of what he has done with cash, dividends and money received from Seven Generations, but we know he did use it because from March 31st to April 30th it dropped from 2.1% of the fund to .69% (about 35-37 million had to go some where)
Here are my theorys:
- he likely added to his Enerplus holding in April which would should explain the bump in April which would add a bump also in May as it moves similar to MEG but my value calculations are a bit off, but MEG seems accurate as a mid point on all 3 lists
- he likely added to Baytex in April as my calculation seems off but it should have a value between Cardinal and Whitecap and likely very close to Cardinal, if we assume he added several million there, it helps explain the major jump in May as on my calculations it seems off by a bunch but it did jump 25% in May
- I feel he added a bit to Cenovus I'm April too, likely a couple million which makes the May ranking make more sense on a value closer to Athabasca but below Canadian Natural
- Crescent Point had to be added to at some point maybe some in April, but definitely May for it to jump so much.
- no basis for this but I would expect he added to Whitecap in April so that number should be higher and it makes sense to add to a position that hasn't move as much but you felt good about at a lower price, if he liked it at 5.52 and felt it had upside when it fell in the 5.38 region it has to be a better place to deploy capital, and he would been right when it jumps to 6.11 and that 10th place is likely closer to Parex.
-Tamarack numbers seem off, my only guess is he trimmed it when it ran up at the start of May as it moved pretty quick and has tripled since the fall
Now the topic at hand of Cardinal, the numbers don't support the idea that it is his 11th place holding on the surface unless you make a bunch of assumptions, but it also doesn't support that he got completely out and replaced it either. My calculations might be flawed somewhere on it, or maybe he trimmed a bit as it has made a similar run to Tamarack but even sharper, and also would explain why he isn't as high on it now because it has made a good run, still holds it as he thinks it has more room to run.
I hope guys willing to go through all this and follow my logic find this interesting, and I know there's issues and flaws with some of the stuff I done, but it doesn't seem way off base and can give us more to discuss on what he may have done with Cardinal... I found it fun and interesting to do, even tho this was a waist of time...