RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Weekly Report CardHopefully, we start to feel much better about TH's interaction with investment community starting on 6/21, if not sooner. They have a chance to rebrand themselves with investors in both the cancer and NASH programs and hopefully they get it right.
SABBOBCAT wrote: And PL is now over a year into the job... at what point does he hold Dubuc accountable? The new broom eneded up being more of a feather duster.
SPCEO1 wrote: It is just a rumor that it was Cantor and, if it was, I don't know if Cantor and/or their analyst is ticked off with TH. It may have been something on Cantor's end that scuttled the deal, not TH's for all we know and Cantor may actually feel badly about the situation. But the look of the OO was one of desperation to lock down the money before the insurrection in the US led to a huge market sell-off. And that cost us all a lot of long term upside. But, generally, the whole analyst thing has just not worked out very well for TH over a very long period of time. It is clear they are not good at that aspect of running the company. There are plentuy of small companies that get at least semi-decent amounts of analyst coverage but TH can't seem to become one of those.
Wino115 wrote: You're probably closer to the analyst situation than I am, but it's a shame if they burnt the Cantor Fitz bridge as they were one of the rumored analysts interested long ago when they listed on NASDAQ. It's funny but if they were the US broker who was going to be on the previous deal where the "technical" issue switched it up, you'd think they'd have an easy shot at being lead on anything happening next, without really trying. If the analyst initiated, they'd clearly be in the lead. I'm sure there's more issues behind the scene on deals, coverage, etc... and it's truly a shame no one in the US is willing to look now. You know they'll all line up if any of the pipeline starts to look promising. PL should remember who was at least receptive in the past and who wasn't.
SPCEO1 wrote: My best guess is the reality is they have burnt their bridges with the analyst community. The proof of that is in the pudding - they have very little analyst coverage. They just burned a US broker, rumored to be Cantor, with the OO. They hung Canaccord analyst out to dry for a long time after he stepped up and wrote a nice report in late 2018 when TH played hardball with the analysts at that time by promising deal status when they eventually offered some shares. Then they panicked and went the bought deal route with Mackie, giving Canaccord only secondary status on the deal. Fortunately, Mr. Nash, however, seems like a nice guy and did not jettison TH completely. They somehow managed to tick off Brian Abrahms after using his firm's services for the convertible. They misled people with the record revenue thing pre-OO. They misled investors like us by saying they would not do an offering at a low stock price. They kept the bogus Egrifta market size numbers in their presentations about 4 years past the expiration date and now they are doing the same with Trogarzo. Basically, they have acted opportunistically rather than strategically all along when it comes to the capital markets and are paying the price for that. Now they have to turn a new page and start getting it right so both Wall Street and Bay Street will start to see TH as a legitimate, trustworthy partner.
I am not sure about all the reasons but they have had a really horrible track record with analysts. It is increasingly apparent that most analysts are not even listening to them any longer. That may not have anything much to do with the past episodes that likely led to some bad blood flowing in those relationships (it may just be the current reality in the market place for a small cap company), but it certainly didn't help.
They likely will soon have cancer data that will help them change the conversation and put things on a better path. Hopefully, if that is true, they make sure they do things with integrity as the cancer story plays out, as by doing so, they could leave their old reputation well behind them. Good data and honest treatment of investors and analysts can really create a very positive dynamic for a stock. Paul already has some black marks on him as a result of the OO but he has a chance to clean that up with how he handles the capital markets with both cancer and NASH developments.
Wino115 wrote: I suppose the LSA strategy could work a few ways - they could try to get a full, foundational report out before the call and entice people to learn more based on their view of the science and probability of commercial success and size of markets they're playing in. Or, they could push hard to get a lot of people to listen to the KOL and use that to entice people to hold on and learn more with their forthcoming report that will detail it all. Whichever gets the largest audience first would be best, but I don't know what kind of pull LSA has.
We are assuming they will write a report. I don't know if that's ever been confirmed by the company but I sure hope they pay for that level of strategic service. There has to be one solid report detailing the market opportunities and providing a good set of opportunities/risks in what they're doing. I'm still in the JFM "hard data in humans" as they ultimate turning point, but it's paramount that THTX and LSA build that audience as much as they can prior to the hard data.
If I were THTX, I would still be pushing hard on brokers and analysts to cover the stock NOW and not after developments if they want to be considered for any future offerings, M&A engagements, etc... I'd try to play as much hardball as they can to get someone on board. Admitedly there's not a lot of "balls" in their court yet, but I'd try to pull all the levers I could to build that analyst support network around upcoming hard news.
SPCEO1 wrote: Well, there is a good chance your pessimism will prove to be incorrect. Right now, the company does have no traction with investors but LSA is something new they are trying and LSA clearly has a successful operation. So, there is good reason to believe things will change with their involvement. Moreover, on 6/21 we know we are going to get an update about cancer. If the company shares good news about cancer and the market does not react to that, particulalrly with LSA helping spread that news to investors who may not be very familiar with TH, then you can be pessimistic. But that is unlikely to be the outcome.
Bucknelly21 wrote: I have a very hard time seeing the lsa event turning around this dismal sp th is in no mans land