RE:RE:Share price should be $5.50 Today, perhaps. After a phase 1 deal announcement, not at all.
The global AD therapy market is $25B. Let's assume PMN is only going to capture 20%, so $5B. At 20% profit margin, they earn $1B.
At a p/e of 20, their market cap is then $20B.
Their current market cap is $70M, heck, let's round up to $100M to account for pending partnership dilution effect.
$20B divided by $100M is a 200-fold increase in share price.
our current share price of 20 cents times 200 gives $40/share.
Vandermosten's analysis used a probability of success of 7% based on analysis of the technology and its maturity.
If you multiply 7% by $40, you come in around $2.80 USD... Not too far from his original estimate.
As they proceed through phase 1 and 2 and 3, that probability of success goes up.
Basically, the current share price is telling us the current probability of success is less than 1%, which in my opinion is extremely conservative, especially now that aducanumab is approved.
Do your own ed and check my math. These are just my personal opinions and I am not an investment advisor.