RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Shorts...What's better...still spending a ton to frac the h*eck out of the well to show high 30-day intial production rates (cough cough Obsidan, In play, Anegeda in the Charlie Lake, pretty much everyone) or toning it down fracing abit less to show a lower capital cost per well.
Well they both work right now.
I would take slightly lower intial producing wells at a cost that YGR is doing them for vs going back and spending 4.5M a well and throwing trucks and trucks of sand into the ground. You have to drill so perfect at 4.5M.
OBE strategy of frck the tons hard will work as well if they don't miss.
You need to look at flush production. YGR has very little of it compared to normal.
Production is alot more steady month to month.
I do think YGR can stay at 9,000-10,000 BOE on a spend of 40-45M....as long as they don't have any zero drill q's.
Any of the Q2 Capex (think it will be 12M)....really is contributing to Q3 production numbers... Not as bad as you think. 18M capex wasnt much in Q1.
Peters is more of a small short term annoyance. They also dumped a few 100k at 1.15.
They are probably profit taking for a fund at 1.15...1.35...and I betch some will show at 1.50.
But the shorts should be worried. The blocks for sale at 1.38 and 1.39 are gone.
Just 1.35 wall and this should break the seal to 1.44-1.50 range.
ppp wrote: Low ARO I give you that.
Low operating costs, are eaten up by high declines. whats better low declines with higher operating costs or lower operating costs and higher declines I say its a wash.
The market wants to know their production numbers over the last while, including the last wells so it can project FCF. If they got their ducks in a row on that front this is worth 2 dollars. If not its not worth 1.35. Low ARO and low production costs mean nothing if you can't keep production flat with reasonable Capx
Peters selling is a major concern as these guys know the biz. The shorts are here for a reason.