RE:RE:RE:RE:Raymond James UpgradeI appreciate the comparison with oil stocks, because that is exactly the parallel the market seems to be following, the oil stocks of the early 2000's.
Once oil broke its decade long hold on 18-20, oil stocks spent a while being valued at $18 - $20 oil, as the market could not conceive that prices would be different going forward. When the futures rose, the oil stocks were flat, and when the futures fell, the oil stocks fell.
Obviously it didn't last that long in historical context, but I can tell you it felt like forever as a holder of CNQ, NXY, PCA and ECA.
The rise, as the gap between cash generated and the expectation priced into the stocks falls, will occur. No one should model IFP on $1,200 lumber prices indefinitely, and I don't think anyone is. {The analysts aren't modelling Q2 2021 on $1,200 lumber prices, for some odd reason}.
But I'm happy to hold shares worth $50-$60 on $600 lumber, with $10-$15 of extra earnings per share over the next 3 quarters.
10,000 shares in, so it hasn't been a good few weeks on that front, but I'm still looking to add if we get one more wash out. Opportunity cost in other stocks has been the biggest pain point for me holding IFP.