Will SU bump the dividend when we get Q2 earnings in 45 daysMgmt provided guidance for 2021 in early February which was based upon US$55 for WTI
The guidance did not include an increase in the dividend this year, but it did mention a tight range of reduced CAPEX ($4 billion), a NCIB ($1 billion plus), and debt repayment ($1 billion plus).
The guidance indicated that WTI at $35 covered CAPEX and the dividend. Therefore the company should be piling up two plus billion of cash per quarter above and beyond the CAPEX and dividend.
SU has already paid back all of the debt that it can this year without paying penalties for early replayment. I expect that they will have bought back most if not all of the 44 million shares available this year via the NCIB.
What is SU going to do with all of the extra cash?
I'm in favour of paying down debt and buying back shares (it the share price is under valued).
However, when you can't pay down any more debt and you have bought back all the shares that you can, it only makes sense to use the excess cash to increase the dividend.