Stockwatch Energy today
Energy Summary for June 14, 2021
2021-06-14 20:36 ET - Market Summary
by Stockwatch Business Reporter
West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery edged down three cents to $70.88 on the New York Merc, while Brent for August added 17 cents to $72.86 (all figures in this para U.S.). Western Canadian Select traded at a discount of $13.88 to WTI, unchanged. Natural gas for July added five cents to $3.35. The TSX energy index lost a fraction to close at 141.23.
In a rare but welcome change, a Canadian pipeline operator not only received some good news, but received it earlier than expected. Enbridge Inc. (ENB: $49.43) cheered today that the Minnesota Court of Appeals has affirmed the permits for the Line 3 replacement project (whereby Enbridge is upgrading and expanding its existing 53-year-old Line 3 pipeline from Alberta to Wisconsin). This is a full legal victory for the company. It also comes a full week ahead of schedule, as the court was not due to rule until June 21. While anti-pipeline activists can and probably will appeal the ruling to the Supreme Court, today's victory means that Enbridge will not have to halt construction. It is aiming to get the project into service in the fourth quarter of this year.
Further afield, Craig Steinke's Reconnaissance Energy Africa Inc. (RECO) added 50 cents to $9.42 on 840,200 shares, after trumpeting a "partnership that seeks to unlock the vast resource potential in Namibia." This is a grandiose way of saying it has finalized an operating agreement with an entity it has already been working with since 2015. The entity is Namibia's state-owned NAMCOR. When Reconnaissance obtained its Namibian assets in 2015, it signed an agreement with the Namibian government, whereby Reconnaissance received a 90-per-cent interest in the assets (but 100 per cent of the cost burden, for now) and NAMCOR received a 10-per-cent carried interest (until commercial production is achieved, at which NAMCOR will start paying its share). Reconnaissance did not disclose what (if anything) is different about today's agreement relative to the 2015 one. In all likelihood, they are substantially the same, perhaps with a few more fleshed-out details on things like environmental practices or long-term hopes and dreams.
For the most part, Reconnaissance is taking the agreement as a sign of Namibia's confidence in the company's exploration program. It has drilled two wells so far this year, both of which "revealed evidence of a working conventional petroleum basin," management cheerfully reminded investors. (A more comprehensive analysis is not expected until July at the earliest.) Originally Reconnaissance was planning to complete a three-well program this year, but today it added a fourth well to the schedule.
The usual cheerleaders were beside themselves with excitement. "[We are] maintaining our Buy rating and Top Pick status [on Reconnaissance]," wrote Haywood analyst Christopher Jones in a research note this morning. He called the agreement with NAMCOR a "positive" and opined that the extra well will add to an already "catalyst-rich" second half of 2021. Mr. Jones has a price target of $12.50 (relative to today's close of $9.42). Disclaimers at the bottom of his note reveal that he or a member of his household has a financial interest in Reconnaissance, and that his employer, Haywood, has led financings for the company and provides other investment banking services. (It is also worth noting that one of Reconnaissance's prominent early investors was Haywood partner and vice-president David Elliott. Financings have diluted Mr. Elliott's holdings below the 10-per-cent reporting threshold, but he likely remains a sizable backer.)
Back in Canada, other analysts swarmed around Mike Rose's Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU), down 62 cents to $32.63. The stock shot up $2.55 on Friday after Tourmaline solidified its position as Canada's largest gas producer by agreeing to buy Black Swan Energy for $1.1-billion. Black Swan (as discussed in Friday's Energy Summary) is producing about 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day in the B.C. Montney, which will push Tourmaline's production toward 500,000 barrels a day.
Analysts had a whole weekend to decide what compliments to bestow. Scotia Capital analyst Cameron Bean cheered the deal as "another big win on the acquisition front," hiking his price target on Tourmaline to $47 from $43. CIBC analyst Jamie Kubik wrote glowingly of the "high quality and strategic fit" of the deal and hiked his price target to $40 from $35. Other analysts making changes to the targets were TD's Aaron Bilkoski (going to $37 from $35), National Bank's Dan Payne (going to $40 from $37.50), BMO's Randy Ollenberger (going to $40 from $38), RBC's Michael Harvey (going to $44 from $42) and Stifel's Robert Fitzmartyn (going all the way to $50.75 from just $42.75). As always, they moved in the same direction but never used the same amounts, which seems to be the unofficial code of conduct among analysts.
In other acquisition news, Alberta junior Petro Viking Energy Inc. (VIK) added three cents to 31 cents on 1.04 million shares, after agreeing to plunk down $50.6-million for all of the assets of the private Avila Energy. The price tag will be paid in the form of 40.4 million common shares and 30 million dividend-yielding convertible shares. For context, Petro Viking's current share count is 15 million.
The deal effectively serves as the go-public transaction for Avila, which has been Petro Viking's joint venturer since 2019. After the closing of the deal (expected by Oct. 31), Petro Viking will change its name to Avila, and Avila's president and chief executive officer, Leonard Van Betuw, will take over as president and CEO of the resulting issuer. This will not be his first time in charge of a public energy company. Before Avila, he was president and CEO of Quattro Exploration, an Alberta junior that went bankrupt in 2017. He then turned his focus to his Avila promotion, which according to Quattro's receiver was one of over a dozen companies that scooped up Quattro's distressed assets. Terms of the sale were confidential. The price tag of $50.6-million under today's deal suggests that the joint venturers, which included Petro Viking as of 2019, believe themselves to have managed the assets well.
The assets are currently producing 2,000 barrels a day. The goal, apparently, is to get them 6,000 barrels a day by the end of 2022. This goal first appeared in the "What we must do and how we will do it" section of Petro Viking's filing statement three months ago. At the time, Petro Viking was staging a less-than-triumphant return to public life. It previously traded on the TSX-V from 2010 to 2015, was downgraded to the NEX board for falling below TSX-V listing standards, and was then dumped altogether in 2016 for failing to pay its annual fees. It stayed quiet for several years before deciding to head to the CSE in March. Today's arrangement for Avila was quite possibly already on its mind. Both companies will be hoping that Avila's future is brighter than that of Quattro or Petro Viking Version 1.
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