Math and Physics suggest that new oil supply ain't enoughFor all the naysayers out there cheering for the end of oil, they have some explaining to do. How will the world's #1 source of supply growth the past 5yrs continue to grow when rig count is slashed by 88% from its high at 1,600 to a low of 200?!?
Even a smoothed out scenario, rig counts will land around -50% from levels required to grow shale production. Everyone is out there on their $1k iPhones talking about the end of fossil fuels. That's trendy but when you neglect your oil supplies at a time when the world needs more oil, prices climb. I don't want to be an alarmist but the $100 oil price projections will be true if economies do not slump into a recession. The next big recession will be forced on the world as it copes with higher fuel costs. Maybe a few years out but depends on suppression of covid19 variants.
Those who were quick to mock Alberta for being a resource developer and supplier will come back with apologies as their forests of wind farms and seas of solar panels prove to be much less effective than originally projected.
As jobs build back in Alberta, people will look to unwind at the Deerfoot, Great Northern and Boomtown properties.
Enjoy the chart. 10yr USA rig count.
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source:
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