RE:The Future for TWMHaving the Pioneer proceeds in the bank makes this a new story of adventure and possibilities, not the grim tale of survival we've had for the last 18 months.
I agree with your EBITDA numbers and would only add that DCF as a % of EBITDA should grow from here due to a combination of lower interest costs and reduced lease liabilities (mostly railcars I think). Just as accumulating debt works as a treadmill against you, reducing it works like a moving walkway at the airport. The more DCF they generate, the lower their debt gets or the more they have to invest in themselves.
I don't have high expectations for them to reduce their absolute lever of debt, but instead expect an increase in growth capex in small, high return projects across their portfolio. I'd guess them to be uncontracted, marketing type assets like blending or assets that can be sold as 'green' like blue hydrogen or carbon capture.
Secure Energy, who bought Joel's previous midstream company, the crude by rail 'Predator Midstream' just raised unsecured notes at 7.xx% today, so maybe the junk market isn't as kind as I'd hoped. [To be fair, they're using the proceeds to pay down 10% notes they're inheriting from Tervita]. I know paying off high interest debt probably doesn't appeal to the 'bold, ambitious, innovative' sales pitch of TWM, but it's hard to turn a profit if you're bleeding money to interest costs.
Also big agree on PPL: I doubled my PPL position when they announced the IPL transaction and dove to $37.25. If it goes through they are a $50/share company when HPC comes on [assuming it comes online near schedule and budget, but I'll leave that analysis to the ever sharp firstworld] and I'll hold it forever.