RE:RE:RE:USDNMPappy, I totally agree that no way this goes for $1 billion or less, not happening. If Casino is a better project than Pensaquito (Dale thinks so, he is the expert, no?) then we know this is worth in excess of $1 billion in 2006 dollars. What is that in today's value? Over $2 billion.
Oh by the way, did anyone notice that the base case NPV figures were concerning the first half of the mine life? So, zero value is given to the back HALF of the mine life?? Obviously, that would have to fall under my "goodwill" category which includes blue sky exploration, etc.
Add it all, up we are definitely talking a $2+ billion deal here folks. Divvied up amongst the 134mm non-RIO shares outstanding and you are in the ballpark of my $20ish a share target.
Just my educated guess here, based upon publicly available information and my back of the envelope calculations. Like I said, don't forget about the goodwill, there are plenty of items that can't be or weren't quantified on the base case scenario. This is where shrewd negotiations come into play.