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Veren Inc T.VRN

Alternate Symbol(s):  VRN

Veren Inc. is a Canada-based oil producer with assets in central Alberta and southeast and southwest Saskatchewan. The principal activities of the Company are acquiring, developing and holding interests in petroleum and natural gas properties and assets related thereto through a general partnership and wholly owned subsidiaries. Its core operational areas include Kaybob Duvernay and Alberta Montney, Shaunavon and Viewfield Bakken. Its Kaybob Duvernay is situated in the heart of the condensate rich fairway, Central Alberta, which provides low risk drilling inventory. Its Alberta Montney assets sit adjacent to its Kaybob Duvernay lands, possessing similar resource characteristics including pay thickness and permeability in the volatile oil fairway of the reservoir. Its Shaunavon resource play is located in southwest Saskatchewan. The Viewfield Bakken light oil pool is located in Saskatchewan.


TSX:VRN - Post by User

Comment by LiquidOctopusV2on Jun 29, 2021 4:27pm
137 Views
Post# 33467738

RE:RE:RE:Maybe this stock's fair value is $5.53 at $73 oil.

RE:RE:RE:Maybe this stock's fair value is $5.53 at $73 oil.Do you have any idea if there is a way to find metrics on whether or not they're accumulating? 

Moemoney42 wrote: I agree Liquid.. the market is still in the show me stage.. unfortunenatley I don't think Q2 numbers are going to do it as the hedges have created a bit of a head wind for this quarter.. that plus the one time costs of closing Kaybob the numbers could be a bit disappointing.. 
I'm looking to Q3, Q4 and next year to really see the numbers and FCF ramp up.. that I believe will be the turning point for many of the O & G stocks that are in my opinion consolidating and the big money traders are the ones frustrating the market realizing that by the end of the year the prices will be much higher.. after all.. look at the rating agencies.. all of them are upping they're targets.. can't tell me they're not taking advantage of frustrated retails to build up their positions.. ;-)

LiquidOctopusV2 wrote: People might think differently because as early as last October this stock was trading in the $1.50 range.  That's not that long ago.  It's been stuck between approx $4.70 and $5.70 since mid-March.  And, that's why the arguments on this board are getting so repetitive.  Nobody has much to say. 

Even though people are worried - right now - about peak oil (and this is something we agree on).  The fact that peak oil is still decades away hasn't seem to sunk in.  There's not future in a the Canadian oil patch, even though the market isn't going to meaningfully change because of energy transition for 25 years.  Canadian stocks always have to prove themselves more than their American counterparts but the market comes around.  I've been investing in oil a long time.  Things build slowly then a breakout.  You got to take some profits while you got it. 

Here's what actually holds CPG back: debt levels, being Canadian, lack of action on NCIB and the dividend, and it's still high risk.  All these energy stocks are still high risk. 

Pandemic recovery looks good but is still beset on all sides by uncertainty.  The dividend is not built into the price.  The market isn't jumping in that readily.  Some of my other O&G stocks have done better than this.  But none of them have had their breakout moment.  The market still is on show-me mode.     
 

JamesT wrote: Nothing more nothing less. A potential dividend increase is already factored into the share price based on the price of oil and CPG's management's ability to issue a dividend. The prospect of this stock going back to $20+ is non existant since in 2014 people were worried about peak oil with no conversations about oil demand peaking. Shale oil taught investors that oil supply will is plentiful with a higher price point and thus keeping cap on oil prices. 

The best we can hope for is perhaps this stock to go over $6 @ $76 WTI, $6.50 @ $80 WTI, $7.50 @ $90 WTI. Maybe we will move up over $10 if oil stays above $80 consistently for 1-2 years (highly unlikely). Maybe this stock will get a bump of $0.50 with a worthwhile dividend increase.

The downside on the other hand, if oil goes below $70, this stock will most likely move under $5, $4.50 @ $65, and god forbid wti goes below $60.

Why would anyone think differently given we've been rangebound at around $5.50 even though WTI increased by 10 bucks over the last couple of months?

 

 




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