Orea Mining Corp OREAF

OREA -NG delayed IPO -Montagne d 'Or high risk bid coming?

[123buyholdhope]

Notice from mid-April 2021 through today, OREA share price has been driven down from US$0.10 to closing in on 0.065; avg daily vol 60,000 shares. Which retail investor has been selling in such an ongoing downtrend (French investor)? Perfect scenario for any entity wishing to drive the sp down over a period. 

Interesting, Nordgold has decided not to come to IPO this summer; apparently, the reason given is it’s the gold price volatility?

Lets’ speculate another reason. NG is held privately by 3 men in a family. A public company would not risk its shareholders (wrath) in determining to buy a project such as Montagne d’OR with so much risk still surrounding it; not even an application yet (supposed to be by the end of the third ¼).

However, would a private Russian entity risk say approx.., US 28 mill to offer a 100% premium (0.12 cents on 233 mill shares all in) to the 20 day OREA stock price (not their yet). If shareholders bite then NG picks up approx. 1.2 mill’ OREA P&P oz for approx., $23 an oz!

Very high risk but potentially a huge return for NG. Buyouts at this gold price in the past have been in the $100 + range (a few ridiculously higher in the past decade, yes, even one at $400 per oz buyout); Therefore, we have past buyouts starting at 4 times and higher than the multiple that NG is likely to offer. Afterall, what’s 28 mill’ $ to the NG billionaires?

Again, Newmont, Barrick and IAG, etc., are unlikely to risk the wrath of their shareholders here and the Chinese investors are likely a ‘no go’ in French Guiana.

It’s on a plate for NG who would go after the present shareholders hoping they can get enough holders who bought in below 10 cents and are happy with a 25 to 100% gain, allowing NG enough shares to push through this takeover.

I am sure that OREA’s Giustra would be against such a offer as he has held his shares for a decade; around 12 cents is, IMHO, not his anticipated return. But NG will go hostile very quick recognizing it is unlikely a white knight would come in to create a bidding war. However, if you are a long-term investor in at around 20 to 40 cents then going from 0.06 up is not going to give such investors anywhere near the level of return they have been holding for.  

However, if the Montagne d’Or application and reports are submitted before NG bites, then it is probable that the OREA sp will respond favorably to reevaluation of the project, based on any new mine cost savings, gold prices (original was calculated around $1250 per oz) and possibly NG release of the March 2018 infill drilling results (upto 2 mill oz in the resource outside P&P), etc.

Further, should the permit award come within 6 months or so of submission then the sp would respond even more strongly (especially, if OREA announced a spinout of projects into two companies to allow release of project value). IMO, we would be looking at serious multiples of today’s sp, again, based on the new P&P oz numbers, gold pricing and AISC (originally calculated around $750-850 range).

GLTA -   https://twitter.com/EarthsRare