RE:Discoverer Contract with BP.I would like to add a few points as a newcomer to the forum.
The Discoverer is currently getting to the end of her contract in Trinidad and my personal guess is that she will start her rig move from Trinidad within the next two weeks, meaning a spud date early August in Guyana.
I anticipate Kawa not to be a very easy well but certainly within the capabilities of a team that a guy like Kevin Lacy can surround himself with. And contrary to what one might (justifiably or not) think of CGX Management, the company that operates the Discoverer is certainly not a bunch of clowns, Maersk Drilling is one of the most competent rig contractors out there, especially in floaters.
So, the combination Lacy + Maersk Drilling gives me a lot of confidence for the technical success probability of this well, which is a really important factor, because for a company of limited funds such as CGX, the quality of the key people (the SDE, drilling superintendent and company men) is critical to be able to drill the well within AFE and without accident.
For obvious reasons one remembers the Cobalt wells of early 2010's in Angola, a no-name company with a "bunch of consultants" that quite a few of snobbish "supermajor" drillers were looking down and the guys drilled the most spectacular exploration wells of these years on that side of the Atlantic, within budget and without screw-ups (there was a liner job that failed and a bit of fishing thereafter, but most of the remaining operations were top-quartile executed).
So, this brings us to the geology part that I am not fully qualified to comment on, as it is not my area. However, OIL_RUN's valuation analysis and remaining posts make good sense to me and therefore, from a simply probabilistic perspective, my judgment is that the SP does not reflect the company's value and that the fundamentals are strong for a much higher SP at spud and then, of course, much higher in case of a commercially successful well.
As a newcomer I can understand all the cumulated frustrations that I read on this forum and all of you will certainly know much better than me what kind of freaking useless clowns the CGX management may be. All I can say is that, based on personal, independent due diligence, I consider Kevin Lacy (that I have never met or worked with) as a competent guy to have that well drilled. This does not remove any geological uncertainty etc but at least on a purely operational side, I feel confident to hold all my shares until TD.
Two trustworthy, competent exploration geologists that I showed the CGX presentations of the prospect decided to embark on the adventure with the rest of us so this gives me enough confidence in my choice but frankly, like on any exploration well, what will happen at TD, well, only Mother Nature knows...