RE:Are Housing valuations fair? Same as oil, what’s fairIndeed, fair value is always relative, but what is the base line? was it a decade and a half ago, when the world believed that the world was truly running of oil, and hence oil companies basically willing to pay any price in order to buy up reserves, or is it now, when it turns out said reserves are both cheap and plentiful (atleast in north america).
Fact of the matter is, you can't use the pricing of a decade or even more unrealistically, two decades ago. The market environment has changed drastically, as has the supply-demand dynamics.
If there are still plenty of the big boys trying to dispose of assets they bought a decade ago, at prices 70-80% lower than they bought them, its going to be hard to justify higher valuations...After all, supply and demand, as you point out.
This isn't just the case in Canada, you see this happening stateside as well, with the shedding of non-core assets at prices, vastly less than they were acquired, (some just a couple of years ago)
Whether that be Ovintiv/Encana selling their Eagle Ford Properties that they bought in 2014 for $3.1B in 2014, for $880M in late March this year, or Shell selling their Duvernay assets bought for $5.9B in 2008 to Crescent point for $900M
bosstrade wrote: All great points on ATH assets and fair price. Chris, I wish the market was as methodical as you. But it's not. My prediction of never under a $1 again is a couple days off. because of no OPEC agreement holding it back. But the bottom line is the money has not come back to oil. Canada US housing prices are too high? Fair? Too low? And what does this have to do with oil and ATH?
Pricing is all supply and demand. Pricing is speculation led. Like all the factors on all below posts. Nothing goes in methodical increments, sorry Chris. Crashes and booms in oil, housing etc without warning are the norm. But if there is demand like there is for oil, the boom will come. Valuations of every point mentioned will exceed expectations and a crash will follow. I'm betting on the short term (weeks) the rise of ATH. If no buyout, which I have predicted for a long time and not been right yet, then Midterm (months) ATH steady and by end of next year if it isn't taken out, a ridiculous price. Line 5 shutdown and line 3 stabilizes WCS price after the flurry and then trans mountain to take WCS back up will take this through the roof until the next crash in a few yrs.
still have a hard time believing this won't be taken out just for debt carry forward.