The next three quarters and thanks to Bossu for causing me to do some detailed work over the weekend.
I will venture here that for the year the total earning sper share will be higher than management estimated
which after all was their midpoint estimate and Randy made a comment that if things styed strong they could be higher. I see a new range coming and it will move to 1.91 to 2.05 as per my calculations.
This is the sunny scenario but it is well within reasonable expectations now. If the current forward PE remained at 14.73 that equates to a new stock pric erange of $28.13 - $30.20
So my max upside for th eyear at $28 may have been a bit too conservative. I am assuming the Canadian dollar stays roughly where it is now. Som ehistoric ratios could move it towards even $35 but as you know I think that is a bridge too far. Look for higher earnings than last year in the next three quarters. To meet management's current upper range of $1.80 and they have already completed $1.29 they have .51 to go for the rest of the year. tof the year. That means if they earn nothing this quarter and the next and 2 cents less lthan last year in the 4 th quarter they will have met the upper guidance of management. Do you still think my target for th eyear of 1.91 to 2.05 is too high??? With $2.00 do you think they might bump the dividend more than 4% to perhaps 8%?
This would give a dividend of about $1.08 and on a $30 price the dividend would become 3.6% ARE THESE REASONABLE GUESTIMATES?? THoughts??