RE:RE:BTE SP at end of 2021 ?BayStreetWolfTO wrote: My assumptions not including Clearwater which I think can significantly change the story.
I preface the discussion by stating everyone should always consider a financial advisor for any advice.
Additionally these are not forecasts or expectations, they are only what I feel I would like to see. No one can predict the future so I am not here to state what the price will be or even should be...only what I feel is achievable given my modeling and assumptions.
With that out of the way my thoughts are this is like a car race. The first half of the course is curves and bends ending at the straight away finish line. The majority of the return will come through managing the curves on the front end once you hit the top speed near the end...changes in speed (or this case price) become less of mystery.
So the first curve and bend deals with the debt and sustained pricing. If oil can hold $65-$70+ by the end of 2021 I would like to see the net debt around $1.5B. If the price continues to drift up $70-$75 I would like to see net debt down to $1.25B in 2022...along with a multi prong approach balancing share buybacks and dividends in Q3/Q4 next year. I would like to see the share count get to 500m from 566m over a 3-year period and also a $0.10+ dividend annualized starting Q3/Q4 2022.
I believe if oil prices hold $70+ these initiatives could be announced by the next AGM.
After that I would like to see progression on a 12-month rolling factor...as I believe the market may factor in some required time factor.
Using what I believe is a reasonable multiple @ $70 oil in 2022 I feel $4.3714 is what I would be looking for and @ $80 oil I would consider $6.3750 an achievable target through 2022.
As you can see I'm not calling $0.10 nor am I calling $10.00.
Of course drift from assumptions in pricing not to mention asset upside etc. could change these thoughts.
Regardless if the macro data continues to trend...the upside is very good from these levels and I feel is worth me hanging around for 24 months. I guess the board has me for at least 720 more days!
This is all just my opinion of course as others have their own.
I have not bothered to conduct a detailed analysis above $80 but given macro events this is something that could be reviewed as the months and quarter progress.
Have a good evening.
Did you listen to the presentation today? Your post is a repeat from several days ago At 65, debt is expected to be 1.4 at year and it was emphasized that we're above 65. Buy backs and dividends will start at a debt to ebitda ratio of less than 1.2. At 65, that is mid q2 2022 to q3. But again, we're above 65 and many believe we'll stay above 65, well above. In fact it's not out of the realm of possibility that they're paying a dividend in q1 2022 So what's an oil company at 75 wti with a debt ratio of < 1.2, producing say 82,000 barrels, paying a divvy and eith ridiculous cash flow worth? to me, institutional investors eventually can't ignore the numbers 1.2,="" producing="" say="" 82,000="" barrels,="" paying="" a="" divvy="" and="" eith="" ridiculous="" cash="" flow="" worth?="" to="" me,="" institutional="" investors="" eventually="" can't="" ignore="" the="">