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Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Alternate Symbol(s):  BTE

Energy Oil & Gas E&P
Baytex Energy Corp. is a Canada-based energy company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and in the Eagle Ford in the United States. Its crude oil and natural gas operations are organized into three main operating areas: Light Oil USA (Eagle Ford), Light Oil Canada (Pembina Duvernay / Viking) and Heavy Oil Canada (Peace River / Peavine / Lloydminster). Its Eagle Ford assets are located in the core of the liquids-rich Eagle Ford shale in South Texas. The Eagle Ford shale covers approximately 269,000 gross acres of crude oil operations. Its Viking assets are located in the Dodsland area in southwest Saskatchewan and in the Esther area of southeastern Alberta. It also holds 100% working interest land position in the East Duvernay resource play in central Alberta.


TSX:BTE - Post by User

Baytex Energy Corp > Long term focus....
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Comment by red2000on Jul 08, 2021 4:42pm
163 Views
Post# 33516232

RE:RE:RE:Long term focus....

RE:RE:RE:Long term focus....Long term focus is the key !  Let's talk about FCF !!!

Next post, i want to talk about energy sector financial ratio !

Base on actual WTI avg. monthly price below, I estimated a 115M$ of FCF in Q2 ! See below !

For all 2021 i expect at the moment ! Between 460M$ to  535M$ of FCF !
Enough money to added CAPEX of 50M$ and paid debt of 400M$ already call by smilly Ed !
Save also roughly 20M$ yearly in interest expense not count in my FCF forecast !
1st long term debt paid, it will help a lot the balance sheet  and all financial ratio !

It means more institutional and fund coming, Because they will now have confidence !

For all 2022, i expect at the moment ! Between 675M$ to 775M$ of FCF ! See below !

For 2022, enough money to paid 2nd long term debt of 500M$. Save another 25M$ of interest expense !

Buyback shares may appears end of 2021, but count it in 2022 !
5% of Out. Sh. at 3$ == 83,4 M$ or 4$ == 111,2 M$.

In my mind, Better start buy back shares with Q2 results, save 27,8M$ ( 111,2-83,4).

Why not a dividend, 0,10 annually worth 55M$, so if shares prices reach higher of 3$ ! Better offer dividend !

MOST IMPORTANT : 
CLEARWATER PROJECT NOT INCLUDED - NO HEDGE PROGRAM ON IT !
HEDGE PROGRAMM FOR 2022 : 3 WAY POTION 48$/58$/68$ !
ALL FORECAST COUNT A RANGE OF 80,000 BOE/D, they want to reach easily 85,000 before end of 2021 !

So the final question... how much worth BTE shares !?
Will be happy to read your answer and if the cae your forecast !


WTI price FCF - 5 years plan FCF yearly FCF quarterly    
                  55  $      1 000 000 000  $         200 000 000  $        50 000 000  $    
                  60  $      1 500 000 000  $         300 000 000  $        75 000 000  $    
                  65  $      2 000 000 000  $         400 000 000  $      100 000 000  $    
                  70  $      2 500 000 000  $         500 000 000  $      125 000 000  $    
                  75  $      3 000 000 000  $         600 000 000  $      150 000 000  $    
                  80  $      3 500 000 000  $         700 000 000  $      175 000 000  $    
                  85  $      4 000 000 000  $         800 000 000  $      200 000 000  $    
                  90  $      4 500 000 000  $         900 000 000  $      225 000 000  $    
                  95  $      5 000 000 000  $      1 000 000 000  $      250 000 000  $    
                100  $      5 500 000 000  $      1 100 000 000  $      275 000 000  $    
           
AVG. $ WTI           
Q1-2021 Q2-2021 Q3-2021 Q4-2021    
           57,78  $                  68,26  $                        75  $                    80  $    
FCF 2021- Q1 FCF 2021- Q2 FCF 2021- Q3 FCF 2021- Q4 FCF 2021  
Confirmed RED2000 - Estimated Estimated Estimated    
    70 000 000  $         115 000 000  $         150 000 000  $      200 000 000  $   535 000 000  $  
            125 000 000  $      150 000 000  $   460 000 000  $ Safe forecast
           
FCF 2022- Q1 FCF 2022- Q2 FCF 2022- Q3 FCF 2022- Q4 FCF 2022  
  175 000 000  $         200 000 000  $         200 000 000  $      200 000 000  $   775 000 000  $  

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