Q2 Adj Funds Flow Forecast Ballpark Estimate - RevisitedLatest CVE Corp presentation forecasts CAD13.3 bln net debt end Q1 declining to ~CAD10 bln by 2021 year end (page 6), ie declining by CAD1.1 bln per quarter, and that sensitivity to WTI is USD1 = CAD250 in Adjusted Funds Flow (page 13).
For these forecasts the assumption for WTI is USD46.50 (page 17) and the slide pack also references the MD&A (
Management’s Discussion and Analysis) notes as filed on Sedar.com, which also says Assumption is WTI46.50 at bottom of page 39 (can't link directly to that file, go to Sedar.com > Search > Company > Cenovus and date May 7, 2021).
WTI started Q2 at USD60 and ended Q2 at USD75, with a fairly straight line inbetween, so average USD67.50, USD21.0 above CVE's assumption for forecasts.
21 x CAD250mln = CAD5.25bln annualized > CAD1.3 extra Adj Free Cash Fiow bln for Q2.
CVE's forecast net debt for end Q2 is CAD13.3 - 1.1 = 12.2 bln, if all the extra Adj FCF is applied to debt, we exit Q2 at CAD10.9 bln,
almost 6 months ahead of schedule.
Rough calculation, but Q2 results later in July should be spectacular.