Good analysis from London poster Porvenir size and gradeFri 13:54
So from the pretty pictures in the Porvenir RNS we can get a first estimate of the resources at Cacharposa.
Currently the relatively accessible higher grade section looks like it’s about 700m long, 400m deep and 100m wide - so approx 80mT at about 0.8% Cu eq (0.7% cutoff and not much above 1%).
This is surrounded by a halo of approx 200mT at about 0.5% cu eq or better if you can get at the higher grade resource located deeper underground and mix with the halo - in 7 to 10 years’ time.
For an open pit and extraction plant at 15mT/y you are looking at in the order of $1b capital cost and get a mine life of over 20 years.
This gives pay back at current copper price ($4.25/lb) of 2 years ($500m profit/y at higher grade), extending to 3 years at ($3.3/lb- expect long term price for PFS).
Looks OK, but if Cu price falls markedly - i.e. back to $2/lb of a year ago - pay back goes out to 8 years and it would not be economic in that environment.
300mT at 0.6% Cu eq and 90% recovery is worth ~$15 billion at today’s prices in the ground.
Value of Porvenir is much more dependent of future Copper price than Alpala as the grade is relatively low.