SHayden wrote: Really, I just think you are a narcissist. "is a mental condition in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance, a deep need for excessive attention and admiration, troubled relationships, and a lack of empathy for others"
You can say this is how you learn, but if you really wanted to learn, you would ask more questions before tossing out words like hypocrite, a healthy person would say, can you expand on this, or challenge them in a more professional dialog. you do not do these things. This is a weakness of yours and you should look at trying to engage in a healthy conversation where real leaning can occur without turning every post into a flame war.
Moving on, Atlantic and China are operation which could prove to be good operations, without a doubt China is throwing off massive cash flows, as could the Atlantic off shore. However, they are a weakness because CVE has not demonstrated that they want to destinate them as core. You can have a good asset that does not fit into the strategic portfolio. If they do not want to invest the cash to grow these assets they should be sold off.
Cenovus is a world class heavy oil operator. It is what they are known for and they are damn good at it. HSE was a good operator in many fields but they were never a tier 1 operator in any of the fields they did business in, this was a major part of their downfall. As a company you are better off to do a few things extraordinarily well, then a lot of things pretty good.
I suspect this is why CVE would move to liquidate non core assets in those areas. They are not an experienced Asian operator nor are they an experienced Atlantic operator. However, they are damn good at running operations in Alberta.
The other thing we need to consider is CVE is not an experienced refiner, all the prior refining operations have been managed by COP. So they need to get up to speed quickly at running their new refineries and upgraders.
Optimizing the high-cost Oil Sands assets and integrating the refining operations are the two main operational priorities at this time.
If you look at CVE before the COP buyout, it slid from 30.xx to around 20.xx and stabilized in that area. (Figures are aprox) yes that is a big hit, but considering what happened to the price of oil it's fair. During that time CVE had one of the best balance sheets of the Canadian oil corps. But they also had about the same production as they had for refining takeaway. Even with low oil prices they were able to have fairly stable revenue that there was not much risk to the company.
Then comes 2016, a 17-billion-dollar acquisition. CVE is drastically changed, oil prices are still low, but now they are heavy on debt, and have doubled oil sands production and taken on 120k BoE/D of production in the deep basin. However, they have not gained any refining assets. They are now very exposed to the price of crude in a way they have not been before. Whatever, they chug along, make good progress in debt repayment for a few years, then boom covid comes along, the price of oil drops further and they have to sell barrels they can't refine themselves. This cause debt to move upwards, and share price to go downwards.
Moving along, CVE / HSE merge, HSE had excess refining, CVE had excess production, there is now very little direct exposure to crude prices as they can re-capture value in the processing chain. HSE has some pretty average oilsands assets, but they have good refining, conventional, gas and retail exposure. CVE can optimize the oil sands assets, integrate the refining and now they are healthy again.
They just need to figure out what they are going to make as core and non core, sell off the non core and be the best in the business at what they choose for core. Being the best operator in a specific area of operation will offset some of the issues of lack of diversification.
Canadian / Chinese political relations are unstable, this is a good enough reason to get out, but they can get a good price for these assets, this makes an even more compelling reason. Then there is the Atlantic assets, in today's world off shore is a crazy risk in its self just from an ESG point of view. Sell if off be free of it, don't get into a fight with the ESG side, because even if you think ESG is a illegitimate, enough people believe in it to make business in ESG unfriendly areas just harder to conduct business as a whole.
In reality CVE has been somewhat of a leader on the ESG side of things, they have conducted themselves very well from that point of view and that is good. They mind as well continue down that road as there will be increasing opposition on the ESG forefront.
Retail is pretty much fine; I am unsure if CVE will designate it as core or not. They aren't really a huge money maker but they do provide revenue as a bit of downstream value.
At the end of the day this is a Canadian company, they need to pick what areas they want to specialize in and let the rest go once they can get a good price for it. Too many hands in different areas makes the company too complex and just less effective.
With the HSE merger they are back to being balanced and that is key.
So sure, China / Atlantic can be a strength, but if CVE does not want to specialize in these areas, then they are a weakness.
RagingBull3 wrote: OK, so we disagree..... You think Atlantic and China offshore operations are a Weakness...
I disagree somewhat.... I think China Offshore is a Strength, and Atlantic offshore at the moment a weakness but it could be a strength also at right oil price.
Sorry, for the mistake...But you can see how one can make it right? The way you said it.
All just my opinion/view/thinking/reading
RagingBull3 wrote: Better yet....... Offshore (Atlantic and China) would be clearer. Hey, not my fault, very reasonable IMHO to assume you only ment Offshore China.
At any rate, it's a strength, not a weakness in my books..
All just my opinion/view/thinking.
RagingBull3 wrote: OK... so off shore/ China means Atlantic off shore and China..... You can't see how someone could interprete that as offshore China. As China is Offshore !!!
This is how I learn.....I "talk" it out. Just like I "talked it out" on the Preferreds.... Dispite No one buying the Prefereds back in March 2020, nobody posting about Preferreds..... I posted posted posted, talked it out with myself..... Finally, came to the conclusion, I'm RIGHT and everyone else WRONG.....
I did my "Strength/Weakness" Pro/Con all by myself.... spouting off all kinds of garbage on the Husky Board...
BEST THING I EVER DID FOR INVESTING WISE..... Lead me to my best trade on Reward/Risk profile.
Simple solution for you, put me on ignore.
All just my opinion/view/thinking
SHayden wrote: In my write up, off shore/ China means Atlantic off shore and China.
Look man, you need to get a life, spend some time off this board and go out an enjoy some things. All you do is come on here and annoy every single person, put words in peoples mouths and make an idiot of yourself.
You come on here and spout off all this garbage then in the next post say you haven't even looked over the financial statements historically. The things you ask are routinely stupid, annoying incorrect and weird.
What you need to do is understand the history of this company, then you will understand why 1+1=2,
Spend more time LEARNING and less time posting on here. There is more to life than annoying strangers on the internet. Overall, I find the things you post to be completely absurd but once in a while I will write something and it is usually to try and point you in the right direction. However, you then just immediately turn around and cr@p on anyone who says anything.
Just take a step back, get off the board for a while, read the company's history, if it does not make sense to you, go to the library and get some books on financial analysis / investing. If that does not help, pony up the money to take some courses through CSI.
But most of all, you just need to step back and relax a bit.
RagingBull3 wrote: A little hypocritical/Bias to lable Asian Offshore as a weekness and not include Atlantic also. Asian raking in the Profits and Cash Flow... While Atlantic expansion with billions spent put on hold.
It's a strenth to have "international" experience, reach....exspecially in HIGH PROFIT areas....not a weakness.
All just my opinion/view/thinking.
SHayden wrote: Strengths
Large production base
Multiple grades
Multiple revenue streams
Vertical intagration
Massive liquidity (credit avaliability)
Refining
Rail access
Pipeline access
Co-gen
Line 3 / TMX entering operation soon (narrowing of the WCS diff)
Most debt is termed out and locked in rates
Weakeness
Debt (Although this is a lot less of a concern that it is made out to be)
Political / ESG
vunerable to oil prices / opec
Operating assets in an enviroment they have less experiance in (off shore / china)
Superior is inactive
Profit is a poor metric to use for companies like this because of inventory, there is a value placed on P1/P2/P3 depending on the current price of oil they will re-evaluate the value of those reserves which will create a meaningless profit or loss on the financal statements. This is why profit is not a valuable metric for a company like this. When you have to de-value 9 billion barrles of oil, that is going to really impact the statements.
Cash flow is better as it shows the cash generating ability of the company. Debt reduction is another good metic however this also gets scewed by the currancy changed from CAD to US. Also debt reduction is harder to read out when a takeover has occured as there will be a massive ammount of one time costs in each of the quarters for the first year, but they are generally most heavily weighted on the first two.
Cenovus is a world class SAGD operator, as time goes on and they optimize the HSE assets the cost of production will come down also debt will be reduced. We will see the cost of production reduced and interest costs reduced. This will result in more excess funds on hand. Once oil has reached a stable place and they do not need to re-evaluate the value of the p1/p2/p3 reserves we will have clearner financal statements to read and "profit" will be a meaningful metric, but at this time it is not due to the reasons mentioned above.