RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Definitely some other unknown factorWell said Spanito as the unknowns are crippling investor sentiment for the E&P's.
None of the 135 refineries in the USA are capable of processing dilbit unless they have been retrofitted at a cost of about US$1 billion each. Most of the retrofits were done in the US midwest (which had to rely upon Alberta production due to pipeline constraints) and some on the GC as well as a few in the east (SU's 2 refineries in Sarnia and Montreal for example).
With the cloudy future of oil and the difficulty in building new pipelines, I don't see any of the dilbit friendly refineries investing in anything new until the energy transition has a clear vision.
Given that Venezuela is a mess and the fact that the US doesn't have any carbon tax, I expect the demand for Alberta's tar sands to remain strong for the next 20 years if not longer.
With the oil majors slashing their CAPEX budgets, shortages are more of a concern that gluts, so oil prices are not likely to be going down by a significant amount going forward.