RE:AMK Stockhouse articleCurrent per OZ
Cost_OZ
AMK $15.72
TUO $22.17
TUD $25.72
If you use the average of $81 per OZ and divide by OZ in reserves to see how many OZ you would get if you paid full price you get.
@_$81oz "Free_OZ"
AMK 1,060,330 4,401,670 4.2X
TUO 1,494,662 3,967,338 2.7X
TUD 5,202,227 1,183,773 2.1X
When I bought AMK I assumed $100 per OZ and the MCAP was in the 17-20M which means I had paid full pop for 200Koz (245Koz @$81). That's 27X increase from my starting point. Now if the TC gods look favorably on me :) I would be ecstatic if say in 2 years more of the same but reserves double, now that would be something.
A doubling in reserves from now as a starting point would look like this.
@_$81oz "Free_OZ"
AMK 1,060,330 9,863,670 9.3X
TUO 1,494,662 9,429,338 6.3X
TUD 5,202,227 27,569,773 5.3X
In these comparisons something obvious needs to be pointed out. AMK is currently uniquely different in that AMK is 100% TC. For that reason, AMK is my anchor and starting point.
Consider this. If you subtract MCAP for AMK to TUO and TUD you get in Millions
MCAP No_TC
AMK $86
TUO $121 $35
TUD $140 $164
TUD here is 1/3 MCAP No_TC is ((MCAP/3)-AMK_MCAP)*3
The spread between what the cost for all assets excluding TC for TUO and TUD looks rather extreme.
Now with TUD doing a spinout this will be much easier to do. I would say that once you get 2 100% TC plays trading that will be fun to watch. Keep in mind that once this happens TUD “has to” trade at a discount to AMK. Why do I say this? Well if markets are efficient they will know that AMK has $0 cost going forward, TUD..... not so much. Could be some fun trades.
On a side note, if you take the cost per OZ for AMK and apply it to TUD reserves and completely exclude their related costs it would trade with a MCAP of about 257M and NewCo 164M. Discount costs will be easy to know as the quarterlies are released. Basically, AMK you do nothing and TUD MCAP you subtract 1 full year of all expenses. From here you would see how closely they trade on a per OZ cost basis.
It’s nice to see TUD join AMK in doing a spinout. This means between both we just got a boost in exploration activity over last year and 2022 could be even greater. Perhaps I should start tracking how many Meters were drilled in total last year between all 3 and start tallying this year’s drilling.
As an example, excluding TUO and can’t remember if any drilling was done on Dunwell 2019-2020?
2019 TUD drilled 9,782M and AMK =0M
can’t find “official” number best was their own estimate
2020 TUD drilled 20,000M and AMK =0M
2021?
TUD says about 50,000M and if you got STNG and hold it current tally is 3,882M
Now again I’m not sure about TUD 2020 but if correct this year you get 2X more drilling than the combined last 2 years.
What I would really like to know from TUD is to confirm 2020 Drilling total and how much does the last 2 years of drilling make up of total Reserves? Thinking out loud but how much drilling is needed to move reserves into M&I? Say that’s 20,000M, leaves 30,000 which is past 2 years total?
I’m thinking 2 years to double reserves (my reference point) but if they hit more of the same and last 2 years drilling makes up 50% then 2021 would add approx. 15M OZ and if it made up 100% it goes to 54M OZ. The variables need some refining that’s too large a range. If last 2 years drilling make 100% resources, then drilling is more of the same hits with min 30,000M drilled per year gives total 82M OZ. I can’t say I can actually see 82M OZ seems lofty.
I think I have to workout the last part a little more :)