RE:RE:RE:RE:89 bio In a way, we're just seeing the highly conservative BOD likely acting again. It wouldn't surprise me that PLs plan was to dose in 3Q and take the risk he could fund a full trial within 12 -18 months, even with a 25% higher cost. He felt he had 3-4 new investors that backed him and the share would be acceptably higher. But at decision time, the volume were way off and the share had stalled. Board probably said "no way", especially with oncology going fast track and possible moving up a gear or two within months. Partnership is worth exploring now and if they don't get the terms they deem "fair", they may have some flexibility in 12 months. If not, strike the best deal on the table. We just can't forget how conservative the BOD has been.
qwerty22 wrote:
I agree it's beyond THTX's means but there is a deeper reason for that. Costs in clinical development grow exponentially from Ph to Ph. Typically biotech are funded thru one Ph then have to go back to the market to fund the next Ph. So alongside the regulatory process the company must have to have explored funding. The complete disinterest from the market suggests that likely failed. Soleus being the most prominent name in the last financing and also being interested in early cancer shows where the limited market interest in thtx lies.
The 3 parts of the puzzle was always to understand the commercial risk, bring the regulators along and convince the market to fund it. I think the NASH externals probably make the risks look worse, they did a great job with the regulators, I don't see any evidence the market wants to be part of this program. They needed all these things to have the means(and reasons) to do this and they didn't get all of them. Just focusing on where they succeeded doesn't seem to me to be enough, it didn't give them all the pieces of the puzzle to hit the go button.
I value the EMA and FDA being onboard because I think a partner would certainly value that. It's a great asset in the partnering package. But I can't say how we got to partnering as the primary path forward is a positive thing, it may be the most viable option but being the only option atm is not a position of strength. There are some headwinds to partnering, I see it as possible but far from certain. If they are prepared to sell it cheaply then anything is possible. Striking a deal that is transformative to the company looks a lot more challenging.
Wino in his first piece looking at the mechanics of a NASH deal had $10-$50 mil upfront, maybe that's possible, I think the market will remain subdued about follow on payments and revenues until there is clinical progress. It may all eventually work out positively but the chance of it being a significant short term source of value look slim.
palinc2000 wrote: Qwerty you dont seem to put any weught in the fact that both FDA and EMA have authorized a Phase 3....in spite of everything else ....
Looking at this strictly from a business sense my conclusion is much more positive,,,,I dont think this is about the 25% extra cost which I agree is not a valid answer but rather it is about the total cost which is beyond THTX means imo
qwerty22 wrote: They have close to $200 mil in bank plus they have active clinical trials.
You should take SPCEO's lead and rightfully position NASH now. There is no sales pitch with NASH. Inevitably critical investors will focus on why thtx is not proceeding alone and that is not a positive conversation to have. 25% increase in cost is not a complete answer, if the opportunity was right for THTX they'd absorb the extra cost, the opportunity isn't right. It would be wasted energy to get into that complex discussion with people.
It's near impossible to guess their chances of success in partnership, the only way to know is go out there and see what the response is and unfortunately we are never going to be given insight into that process.
Even if the company was promotional NASH wouldn't be the program to promote.
scarlet1967 wrote: This phase2b NASH company is currently valued $350M versus THTX's $310M, they only have one program and that's it. I believe the company still needs to go out there and promote their programs including NASH whether they are currently negotiating a partnership or not. Investors need to be educated in order to factor in the value of their now finalized NASH protocol. We have few months before the oncology results will be announced, this is a perfect timing to fill the gap between news by starting the NASH marketing. There is no reason why not now that their negotiations are finalized.
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