RE:National Bank: 1,75$Very interesting read, an admission of eating crow!
lb1temporary wrote: After a joke like upgrade at 1$ a few days ago, they revised thier target at 1,75$. Usefull to read it.
Raised to Outperform from Sector Perform
Bombardier shares have frankly outperformed our expectations as we believed the market would demand more evidence of progress towards the company’s profitability and cash flow targets before a significant move higher. While we too would prefer to see more progress on margin improvement, we nevertheless concede that the company is making progress that is well-supported by improving end market conditions. We see meaningful potential upside for the stock even if results fall short of the targeted $1.5 billion in EBITDA in 2025. As such, we are raising our rating on Bombardier to Outperform from Sector Perform. Our new target is C$1.75, up from C$1.00 previously.
Very positive trends in the business jet market
The key driver of our upgrade is the ongoing strengthening in the business jet market that we believe will support strong new jet order activity in the coming quarters for Bombardier. Of note, according to the latest weekly report from WINGX, global business jet flights in the first 12 days of July were up 11% over the same period in 2019 and up 40% versus last year. Major fractional jet operators like NetJets and Flexjet are also reporting unprecedented levels of demand.
Balance sheet less of a concern
Bombardier continues to take steps to re-pay debt and de-risk the balance sheet most recently by issuing $1.2 billion of new senior notes that mature in 2026, with the funds used to re-pay nearer-term maturities. Bombardier's balance sheet is still highly levered, but with a path to positive free cash flow, liquidity concerns have been alleviated.
Q2/21 expectations
Bombardier is scheduled to release its Q2 results on August 5th. Based on sources we track, we estimate Bombardier delivered 29 planes in Q2 versus our prior estimate for 25. We estimate Global 7500 deliveries were 12 versus our prior forecast for 8.