RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:New Approach on LTD.Sorry repost. Left out 2 words. Please reread the post.
That was a good excercise for us, of all facets of this company's business. Thanks for participating Jim. It's always nice, to have someone to run things by. It gives our numbers much more validity, having the 2 of us work on them. This will be an eye opener for the real Investors here.
Now
the real Investors here on this board, don't have to rely on false information from all the riffraff that comes on here on this board and tries to put the fears onto the unsuspecting prey here. You have clear concise information.
Q2 is just around the corner, so we'll get a clearer view of where they're heading for 2021/22. Honestly. I feel very positive about this pure play right now.
Jim99999 wrote: Well, I have them at $2.1B cash now, with the $514M 2022 and $534M 2023 outstanding amounts yet to be repaid.
If FCF usage in Q2 was $200M, that may be around $1.9B left. They may feel comfortable letting cash on hand get as low as $1.3B, so there's $600M or so to put toward those debts. They may do another small raise, or get a LOC, but the LOC is highly dependent on the terms and rate.
Regardless, I see no difficulty clearing those remaining two debts later this year or early next year, and having the three year runway they have spoken of.
The most important thing now is for them to show that they can reach the targets set forth in March. I have absolutely no doubt they will achieve their targets for 2021. I will be keenly watching for their guidance for 2022. In the Investor day presentation, while they did not explicitly define yearly targets, there was enough information given that one can extrapolate what their yearly targets are. For 2022, they are targeting $875M EBITDA on revenues of ~$6.3B. If they maintain those targets when they give 2022 guidance, we will know things are on track.
Jim
BBDB859 wrote: Ok Jim.
It sounds like we're in agreement on the left over cash as well. Because they gotta be around $2.2B after repaiment of everything for the LTD up to Dec/2024
The Dec/2024 of $1B LTD redemption will probably come from the above $2.2B and that'll leave them about $1.2B on hand, and the new LOC (I think $1.5B). Which points me to direction of them maybe refinancing only $1B of the $1.5B Mar./2025 LTD, and using another $500M of their cash on hand. This will leave with the line LOC and $700M in cash on hand and where the debt TLD will be reduced from $7.33B (LTD) -$1.5B (from cash on hand) = $5.83B by end of 2024
Now as for the redemption fees I think they include the fees on the payouts, and therefore what we see on their discharge reports, is the NET #'s of the payouts fees taken out.
Don't forget that, they have to start getting profitable soon. Especially now that all the worries (LTD, Dev.costs, Learning curves, Cost Cutting from suppliers, Personel, and even CAPEX) are behind them. Don't worry about CAPEX for the next 2-3 years, because they already have spent the money for those Service Facilities, (btw, that's where the Cashburn went, to those service facilities, JMHO) and even for the Pearson G7500 the Capex will be small.
I see profits (+FCF) by either Q4/2021 or Q1/2022. This will start to drive some shoring up the company, and jump start the profits from the substantial changes done so far, to the new casflow transformation.
859
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