RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Topicus vs Constellation
Capharnaum wrote: Alright, for my cashflow projections, I only use cash flows from operations minus changes in working capital (which are usually temporary) and net income tax, then apply a capex cost when required.
For Topicus Q1 2021, I used 163M - 113M (changes in working capital) = 50M. In comparison, on the same basis Q1 2020 was 35M.
50M x 4 = 200M + 55M (dividends on prefs that won't be paid) = 255M per year + 30M in growth from acquisitions = 285M for FY 2021. 285M / 130 = 2.20 $ per share per year.
Same calc for CSU except I didn't put any growth in their cashflows since I wasn't certain of the net impact of Topicus vs their acquisitions getting in.
Also keep in mind that $1.48 cad = 1 euro
and Topicus is trading in Canadian $'s
Q1 cash flow before changes in working capital is 46.9 Euro or Cad $69.4m. This compares to Euro 22.9 M in 2019 or a 104.8% increase from last year.
Topicus market cap is ~$ 3.4 B in Canadian $'s
For the full year 2020 I get cash flow before non cash changes to working capital of Euro 140.6 M or Cad $208.8 M which compares to Euro 113 M for 2019 for a ~ 24.4 % increase.
For the last twelve months I get cash flow before changes in non cash working capital of Euro 164.6 M or ~ Cad $243.6 M
Market cap to cash flow ratio of ~ 14.2 which is very low given their growth rate.