RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Theratechnologies Establishes New At-The-Market Facility In my view the bar is pretty low for what constitutes "good" results in these first patients. +20% of Ph1 patients can be so far gone with their cancers that they progress exemely rapidly and even quickly die, as we saw with the first patient. Christain said maybe 75% of enrolled patients might be Sort+, that sounds like a top end estimate to me but that means another 25% (at least) will not be responders. Just there we are probably over half enrolled being unlikely responders. Expecting 100% of the remainder to be positive is asking too much given the diversity of different cancer indications they might pick up. Very quickly you are getting to one or two or three responders from the first 15-20 patients being a reasonable expectation and that being just fine given the circumstances. It not even likely they've dosed all patients yet or that they got to the top dose so making a call based on efficacy that things are going badly looks like not one they can really make now. Christian said enrolment was steady at 3-4 weeks per dose so that sounds like no safety interruptions. Even if say you just got very shallow, transient responses that would still be at lower doses and you might expect more at higher doses.
Anything is possible but making a negative call on cancer would be premature at this point in time, unless something dramatically bad had happened, surely that would require a PR. There are heaps of possible permutations but calling "bad" data at this point you would really need not just weakness but a real bad signal.
SPCEO1 wrote: That is a risk but surely they will not go down that path again. When nearly every other company is able to get its share price higher in today's market without having to be taken to the cleaners by institutional investors on the prowl for stupid management teams and boards willing to sell at ultra low prices, it would be quite devastating to see TH be a two time loser on that front. And I don't think they are that stupid.
But we know they have willfully misled us previously (CEO said they would not sell at such low prices before the OO). So, there is always a chance something is amiss with the cancer trial and they are allowing investors to feel good about the cancer prospects despite this. If that were to be the case (that they already know the cancer results are not going to cut it, or that the risk of a bad outcome is higher than we realize based on what they have shared so far) then selling shares here might make sense as the share price would fall if cancer was a dud. So, perhaps we will get a very good idea of what they really think about cancer by how they use this new facility. Unfortunately, the timing of the situation is such that we may not know what they have done with the facility until the cancer results are out.
So, there is certainly room for worriers to worry about this. But, despite management's past misleading statements around share offerings, I struggle to see how they could go that route again. They would lose all credibility for a very long time and they don't have much to start with.
archeo753 wrote: My first thought was that Cantor might have some clients that want shares at today's price and don't want to drive up the share price by aquiring in the open market. TH could release these ATM shares until they get their fill therefore dilluting legacy shareholders at what we all see as a discount to what the TH should be selling for. Glad to see others here have more positive views of the ATM stategy.