RE:NFG metrics, using Fosterville 2021 Q1JK "NFG metrics, using Fosterville 2021 Q1 costs of:-
- 228 USD Cash Cost per ounce.
- 423 USD AISC per ounce.
At the recent NFG SP high, the company cap was ~ CAD2bn = USD1.6bn
The NFG AISC cost should be much lower that Fosterville, due to the lower depths of the ore.
Say, 400USD and the price at production and going forward averages 2000USD.
This gives a profit of 1600USD per ounce.
Therefore, at the recent NFG SP high, the market cap was USD1.6bn
NFG was therefore valued at the equivalent of 1m ounces of gold at the profit rate of 1600USD per ounce.
The above assumes that the NPV of the future cash flows is made without discounting, but applying a discount may not be needed, as the future gold price reflects the interest given by depreciating fiat money.
The valuation of NFG at the production profit on 1m ounces seems to be on the low side, when the exploration numbers could already be indicating many multiples of 1m ounces."
Pretty rational reasoning you've put forth; no guarantees, of course; yet fairly supportive and conservative at the same time.
NFG is a fun train to ride.