RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Additional thoughts on the ATM Paul talked about unlocking value in NASH with a partner. My assumption is it hasn't been unlocked already by what they have already done. In a post earlier you said NASH was not priced into the stock. On both their big announcements (go to general Nash and final protocol) the market shrugged. At every turn the market took no interest. I know you are going to tell me it's because nobody is taking notice and that's THTX's fault but it all points to the market being dis-interested in NASH. I'm not sure what you are disagreeing with.
I thought we both agreed the market is uninterested in THTX's NASH program, we disagree why, but I didn't think that point was disputed.
SPCEO1 wrote: May I suggest you be careful of the confirmation bias issue with your views on NASH (we all struggle with it, of course - it is part of the human condition). You are assuming NASH is not highly valued but Wino put out a summary of a conversation with a VC player who knows the area well and he indicated they would be able to achieve significant value from it. So, while it may be satisfying to you that your previous analysis of NASH's shortcomings seem to be coming to the forefront, take some time to think about Wino's post too. From what I think is my more neutral view (Ha!) I believe you have gone too far to one side on NASH and that is unlikely to be the reality fo the current situation TH faces.
qwerty22 wrote: Yeah, insatiable need. Maybe the lack of interest in NASH was a lesson, it has them looking to open every avenue to cash.
palinc2000 wrote:
Institutions would not have much problem in taking a position by buying in the open market .... The SP would trend higher of course but not that much .......5 USD would allow them to buy millions of shares in the open market....So the ATM is not imo about giving access to institutions It is about the INSATIABLE NEED for CASH in biotechs looking to fund their pipeline....
Maybe this time there is a rabbit...... Fingers crossed
SPCEO1 wrote: I asked those questions and she got back but didn't answer them. So I asked them again.
scarlet1967 wrote: I hope she clarifies why now and what is the reason for it. All these u turns from HIV to general NASH to going alone and now partnership although all are sensible decisions, they also cause some confusion. This hole NASH saga has been nothing but confusing thus no decent positive reaction from the market despite the fact it's now harmonized with a clearer potential path to progress. They got both agencies onboard, they added the interim arm to deal with the biopsy issue and have a ready to go program yet nothing from the market in fact the SP declined slightly since the partnership announcement. I understand one has to assess and reassess before committing to a big project but do all that and finalize it before communicating your decision.
SPCEO1 wrote: If the meetings with US institutions went verry well last week (and I could see how that might be the case) those institutions might be pressing THTX to sell them shares. But if THTX was going to do that, why would they set up an ATM? Why not just do a regular offering under the current $150 million shelf offering that I am pretty sure is still in place? Since this is apparently not the case, it seems to me they intend to sit on this ATM option until a more optimal time to sell shares, just like they have sat on the shelf offering for nearly two years.
In the last conference call, the words "shareholder value" made an appearance. Those words have not been uttered a lot by THTX management over the years and I was heartened to see them make an appearance. Hopefully, we will see them back up those words with action and continue to process of rebuilding their credibility with investors. Everything will be easier for Paul and the board in the years to come if they are able to rebuild that credibility and everything will be harder if they blow it up once more.
There is a classic proverb in the Bible; "As a dog returns to its vomit, so a fool returns to its folly". Let's hope THTX management and board do not return to their previous folly.
I have asked Leah Gibson to priovide any context she can regarding the deal and will pass along anything she might offer in that regard.