RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:A lot of divirsity of opinions hereAs Wino suggested, it is entirely in the hands of management to make this a win-win for everyone. It is all about the execution on the ATM and they should be able to handle that easily. If they end up pumping out $25 million in shares between now and the end of August at low prices, that would be yet another disaster and would also indicate that the cancer results are not looking as good as we are all hoping they will look.
If the cancer results are very good and they wait until then to start opening the ATM, we may still be upset they are selling too low because of our now higher expectations but it will be a high class problem for us to deal with since the stock will be on the move higher, perhaps much higher.
qwerty22 wrote: So Wino has outlined a best case scenario for us here. Is that how others see it?
Wino115 wrote:
It can vary a lot but it's usually over longer periods, not short term - so many months, not weeks. The point being they are trying not to suck the wind out from under their (hopeful) wings. Theoretically you could keep it going for well over a year and I've seen that.
It could exist and never reach the total. I haven't read the prospectus but I'm sure it's 100% in THTX discretion to cancel it whenever they want at levels below the max. They may need to just pay up Cantor the full fee, which Palinc listed and is pretty low.
THTX will have final decision, not Cantor. But I am sure Cantor will try to guide them and give them a view on what demand they've drummed up at what levels and tell them a bit about client type and size. So Cantor might entice them to let some go here and there and give overall market sentiment views. Cantor gets paid the same amount no matter what the price so they have an incentive to both convince THTX now is the time, and they have an incentive to make their institutional clients happy with a good entry price. The castle wall is THTX management standing strong on the value.
We have to hope the strategy is that THTX has internally seen good things in oncology and intimated to Cantor things are heating up, without disclosing anything non public. They then convinced Cantor that they believe in the next 6 months there will be a high probability for demand for shares based on developments and they want the facility in place to get Cantor on board, to raise a bit of cash for general purposes and to allow high quality Cantor clients to access shares. Cantor probably realized they can write up the report, but with such little volume their clients won't bite. So this fulfills both needs of it's done post some solid value enhancing news flow. If not, legacy shareholders suffer if sold before the news flow. We need to hope Soleus has lodged their view with PL too --great to get banker and feed market higher, but at levels post a key milestone, not BEFORE the milestone.
You may recall PL mentioned a few times a double digit price target if you valued the full pipeline. Let's hope Cantor sees it that way too.
qwerty22 wrote:
Walk me thru an ATM if you can. They usually sell over the course of a few weeks/months? Or it can vary a lot? Can it exist and never reach it's total shares sold or do they always end up selling all? It says the company has complete control of the flow of shares, is that the usual wording? Is that how it plays out in practice or will Cantor dictate the pace of share sales?
Wino115 wrote:
That's the right question we need to answer for ourselves. It's definitely positive for Cantor (at some point). Positive for management because they own very little and now can raise money easily if they want, when they want and at any price they choose.
A positive to me would be if Cantor does a very in-depth, solid, convincing research report valuing the full company and looking at future scenarios in that valuation. You could say it's a positive if any price they ultimately sell at is higher than where it will be in a year. But of course that means the news flow would be negative. I guess you could say it's a positive if the share spikes to a ridiculous level and they sell it out with minimal dilution and the share comes back to reality. But this assumes they are great market timers and the new investors are not.
I suppose it would be a positive if a good NASH deal requires them to fund more of the trial in order to attract a quality partner. Another sce ariowpuld be they get accelerated approval and break through therapy and FDA tells them to do a quick confirmatory P3 and allows them to start selling it on a experimental basis post a P2 with good news. In that case they need to ramp sales in US quickly. Having an ATM shows the FDA you can move ahead just as rapidly as them.
qwerty22 wrote:
What if we assumed a very positive outcome in cancer. What if people came knocking looking to invest in the SORT1 technology. Would the ATM be a strong tool in managements armoury to take advantage of that?
We are all naturally suspicious. Are there any circumstances where the ATM is a positive to us?
SPCEO1 wrote:
Reading through the posts reveals a very wide range of opinions. TH should be quick to clear things up - clear shareholder communications are key to success in such situations. Hopefully, we will get that soon. There may be a reason why Leah Gibson has not tried to answer my questions yet - she can't until another shoe falls. But as soon as then can get all of us singing from the same song sheet, the better.