RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:ATMIt's a good thing to have people on discussion board that will put forward the risks of failure, it is healthy because drug development is a very risky business, but when the outlook is always on the negative side, then it's more problematic. Why are you following a company if you don't believe they have a fair chance of succeeding? Again, we all know drug development is risky, so it's kind of the baseline for everything we talk about. We know it's risky, we know nothing is sure, that's the starting point. After that the discussion is about the odds of beating that baseline reality.
SPCEO, you are right when you say that he was wrong about Thera being able to agree with both FDA and EMA on a phase III protocol. Now he is trying to turn it into a victory for him because Thera is not willing to invest the huge amount of money that is needed to do the trial. That's not what it is. This NASH story is not over. I don't know how it will end up, but to have a phase III protocol approved by both agencies has value. How much? We will see. Levesque firmly said that they won't drop it. In the next few months Thera will be at a strategic crossroads . A lot of fondamental decisions will be taken, and that will shape the future of the company. Some said from day one here that buying Katana was like buying a lottery ticket, from day one I said the opposite and provided the Lutathera example to show that the PDC strategy was a valid one. I never said it was a sure thing, even today I am not 100% sure, but from the begining the potential was there, after that, it depends on the quality of the sciience behind it. It will be the same for the phase III in NASH. They will have to convince a partner that the indirect data they have is strong enough and that it is worth investing tens of millions of dollars in a phase III. I know some dislike this idea here, but in drug development, it always comes down to the quality of the science and you only know how good the science is after it has been tested on humans. It will be harder to prove efficacy in NASH because of the nature of the disease and the ways to assess efficacy, but in cancer, if it works well, we will know pretty quickly. If efficacy is mild, then it could be much longer and more complicated to get it approved.
SPCEO1 wrote: The market, like yourself, is most likely actually getting this all wrong. And remember, you were wrong about the FDA giving them the OK to proceed as well. Since you are clearly very knowledgeable, I sense you were wrong simply because you (and none of us) had all the facts that were presentedd to t he FDA and now EMA as well. You may remember that I said while I had great respect for your opinion, I was going to go with what Loomba was saying as he had greater access to all aspects of TH's info surrounding their NASH program and was backing it.
The chance that a partnership will happen is actually quite easy to predict. You have a phase III ready program in a space where the opportunity is huge. Something will get done, it is now just a matter of the terms of the deal - those are not only hard to predict, they are basically impossible to predict.
As a result, you can't really put a tight value on the partnership's value to TH. But zero is not the right answer either. TH does need to communicate better about what they are hoping to a chieve in this partnership, if only in very broad terms so as not to hinder their negotiatiing stance, if the market is going to give it some value. But this asset that they have created, almost out of thin air, is worth something to some company.
With the lack of details about a partnership, the market's current low view of NASH companies and the substandard analyst coverage of TH, you are right that no one is likely to get far ahead of the actual announcement of a NASH partnership. So while I am almost certain the premise of your argument is incorrect, I think your conclusion is largely accurate anyway. The market will likely be quite surprised (positively) by details of the partnership once it is unveiled. Since it seems to be valuing it for nothing at the moment, surprising the market on this is not a high bar to jump!
qwerty22 wrote: The market doesn't need messaging about NASH partnering expectations, it's getting it right.
The chance it will happen is...... hard to predict.
The amount of value it will unlock for thtx shareholders is ....... hard to predict.
The only thing that seems certain is thtx are putting resources into this process.
Is it even worth trying to value a NASH partnership as an asset at this point?
I can't see anybody wishing to get in ahead of this milestone. It's one you just have to forget about until a deal is announced (if it ever is).
scarlet1967 wrote: I can see a conservative board does exactly what you suggested but to what consequences?When they did the offering right after the good PR they send a clear message to the market which in my opinion was their confidence in their programs is not high so the deal was good and in a right time. Now if they start selling before a potential NASH partnership what is the message to the market and potential partners? That's why they should at least say something about the purpose for the ATM
if and when they start selling shares. They don't need to say much just hinting we might need the money for NASH absent a favourable partnership. Paul said they are in position of strength now if they start chasing cash for converts which are due in couple of years to me that's not a sign of being in a position of strength for their NASH program. They can't justify that raise for oncology as it is still early in the process.I agree the sales should pick up post pandemic but the coverage of cantor needs to include both oncology and NASH therefore they need to send the right messages so investors believe in cantor and the company.
palinc2000 wrote: Coverage by CF,,,,Better execution on the commercial side.,,,,,,more clarity on Nash,,,,
I think the 25-40% is what it should take for THTX to start drawing on the ATM but what happens after 10 to 20 milliuon have been drawn is hard to say
longterm56 wrote: Any ideas on what will make the stock price go up 25-40% from July 23 closing price before the Phase 1 results?
-LT
palinc2000 wrote:
What is more likely is a more balanced approach with some drawdowns at prices representing 25-40% increase from the July 23 closing prices ,,,
My own expectations is at least 35-40 million $ before the release of Phase 1 Clinical Results
I will not hide behind the ignore button id I am wrong