RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:ATM Yes Ph3 always seemed a stretch to me but I don't believe I ever ruled it completely out and as I said management need to be applauded for over-achievement there. "non futility" covers the biggest concerns I had, I foresaw a hybrid 2b/3 and we pretty much got it. My language is a lot less precise than THTX's but the "hole in the data" and the fact we are "blind to where the Ph3 endpoints will land" are both covered by "non futility". The other point is once they got the "study may proceed" letter I also said that I thought the decision to proceed was now out of the hands of the regulators, I couldn't see how they could change their position without new data and no new data was expected. But I did say the decision was firmly in the hands of thtx, that is exactly how it turned out. The response by some (no names) on this board to that point was pretty much Ph3 was a done deal. They have a protocol on paper and no active clinical program, it doesn't feel like a done deal. (Enough he said, she said)
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"The chance that a partnership will happen is actually quite easy to predict. You have a phase III ready program in a space where the opportunity is huge. Something will get done, it is now just a matter of the terms of the deal - those are not only hard to predict, they are basically impossible to predict. "
Ok I agree with that statement. The package they have is certainly AN ASSET so somebody will buy it if THTX is prepared to take any offer. So zero is out. But getting a deal that looks transformative for thtx that is far from certain and probably that is what matters.
You want further clarity but I really don't know what they can say without further showing their hand in negotiations or to be so vague as to be meaningless. What do you want them to say exactly? They definitely should shift away from a heavy reliance on the science and talk about the NASH market given this is now an asset for sale.
I think I see your own confirmation bias. You don't want to give up on NASH as a billion dollar asset. You certainly don't want management to give up on that. If that is the goal then the path to that sort of outcome looks extremely challenging to me.
I think if we caveat things a little and say what are the chances of a transformative deal then we are back to that being very hard to predict. I don't believe Paul when he says they have a strong hand, he's bluffing. I think they've put themselves in the best possible position they can (without dosing more patients) but that is not unequivocally strong.
SPCEO1 wrote: The market, like yourself, is most likely actually getting this all wrong. And remember, you were wrong about the FDA giving them the OK to proceed as well. Since you are clearly very knowledgeable, I sense you were wrong simply because you (and none of us) had all the facts that were presentedd to t he FDA and now EMA as well. You may remember that I said while I had great respect for your opinion, I was going to go with what Loomba was saying as he had greater access to all aspects of TH's info surrounding their NASH program and was backing it.
The chance that a partnership will happen is actually quite easy to predict. You have a phase III ready program in a space where the opportunity is huge. Something will get done, it is now just a matter of the terms of the deal - those are not only hard to predict, they are basically impossible to predict.
As a result, you can't really put a tight value on the partnership's value to TH. But zero is not the right answer either. TH does need to communicate better about what they are hoping to a chieve in this partnership, if only in very broad terms so as not to hinder their negotiatiing stance, if the market is going to give it some value. But this asset that they have created, almost out of thin air, is worth something to some company.
With the lack of details about a partnership, the market's current low view of NASH companies and the substandard analyst coverage of TH, you are right that no one is likely to get far ahead of the actual announcement of a NASH partnership. So while I am almost certain the premise of your argument is incorrect, I think your conclusion is largely accurate anyway. The market will likely be quite surprised (positively) by details of the partnership once it is unveiled. Since it seems to be valuing it for nothing at the moment, surprising the market on this is not a high bar to jump!
qwerty22 wrote: The market doesn't need messaging about NASH partnering expectations, it's getting it right.
The chance it will happen is...... hard to predict.
The amount of value it will unlock for thtx shareholders is ....... hard to predict.
The only thing that seems certain is thtx are putting resources into this process.
Is it even worth trying to value a NASH partnership as an asset at this point?
I can't see anybody wishing to get in ahead of this milestone. It's one you just have to forget about until a deal is announced (if it ever is).
scarlet1967 wrote: I can see a conservative board does exactly what you suggested but to what consequences?When they did the offering right after the good PR they send a clear message to the market which in my opinion was their confidence in their programs is not high so the deal was good and in a right time. Now if they start selling before a potential NASH partnership what is the message to the market and potential partners? That's why they should at least say something about the purpose for the ATM
if and when they start selling shares. They don't need to say much just hinting we might need the money for NASH absent a favourable partnership. Paul said they are in position of strength now if they start chasing cash for converts which are due in couple of years to me that's not a sign of being in a position of strength for their NASH program. They can't justify that raise for oncology as it is still early in the process.I agree the sales should pick up post pandemic but the coverage of cantor needs to include both oncology and NASH therefore they need to send the right messages so investors believe in cantor and the company.
palinc2000 wrote: Coverage by CF,,,,Better execution on the commercial side.,,,,,,more clarity on Nash,,,,
I think the 25-40% is what it should take for THTX to start drawing on the ATM but what happens after 10 to 20 milliuon have been drawn is hard to say
longterm56 wrote: Any ideas on what will make the stock price go up 25-40% from July 23 closing price before the Phase 1 results?
-LT
palinc2000 wrote:
What is more likely is a more balanced approach with some drawdowns at prices representing 25-40% increase from the July 23 closing prices ,,,
My own expectations is at least 35-40 million $ before the release of Phase 1 Clinical Results
I will not hide behind the ignore button id I am wrong