RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:mhpit's super interesting. every time I double check your numbers they are invariably wrong. and they invariably are SLANTED in the favor of your argument. I expect more but I really shouldn't/ It's typical bull board behavior. I must Lower my expectations. For example wti futures never closed at $78. The highest close I can find was $76 and CHANGE. And that was ONE DAY. Again the WTI futures curve for next year is UNDER $70. Well under.
second do you always base your analaysis on nothing more than "wishin and hopin"? or Feelings? Most would simply base their analysis on Reality?
As for hedging, they do hedge their liquids. And I've read that they prefer the certainty of hedges to lock in their cash flows. That's what you have to do when you carry too much debt. So I expect them to continue to hedge forward production.
I think you've got it wrong Again. this is what they say about the rest of 2021.
Approximately 52% of forecast midpoint production is hedged over the final three quarters of 2021. After taking such hedging into account, 2021 forecast free cash flow would still be approximately $60 million at an average WTI oil price of US$40.00/Bbl over the final three quarters of the year and would rise to $155 million at an average WTI oil price of US$65.00/Bbl over the final three quarters of the year. Finally, I don't make decisions about how I spend my time based on commodity prices. I don't check the price of gas and determine whether I should post that day or not. My brain don't work that way.
I am here because I am conducting a social experiment related to human behavior of a certain species commonly found on bull boards. It's going swimmingly.
Robertboblaw wrote: uncutgems wrote: genius I didn't say they were hedged now. I said if we start getting higher oil prices near $80 they will hedge. we arne't even above $70 for 22. I guarantee they will hedge well before the price hits $80.
you must realize that the 2022 curve looks to be around $66 at the moment? you are predicting it wil AVERAGE $80. and you based your entire forecast on the price being $80. Like I said "conservatism" doesn't seem to be your thing.
you seem to think an NCIB guarantees a buyback. it doesn't. surprised you didn't know that. plenty of companies open up an NCIB and never buy a single share. you know that right?
I've got my money on it that WTI will avg ~$80 next year. We were at ~$78 just a few weeks ago. To presume what commodity prices will be 6 to 18 months from now is a tough task no doubt, but I'm going based on the the trends I see continuing...commodity prices in general have been on some pretty wild swings in the last few months so... time will tell... JR has usually kept oil and condy hedges to a minimum in the past, and I've seen no indication that will change next year, but we should know for sure in few weeks when Q2 goes live. I'm confident then, any oil/condy hedges would have an overall immaterial impact on realized oil condy prices next year. On a side note, I'm pretty sure what's brought the latest troll out from the woodwork is the recent run up in nat gas prices. Like 80% of TOU is gassy.. and this guy just happens to show up when his company suddenly looks smart for being a dry gasser. I'll give it to ya that nat gas prices have been utterly brutal in the last 5 to 10 years, so anything in the $4 range would benefit TOU a bunch. But 2 months of higher gas prices after basically 10 years of futility though? Man that seems like a stretch to me at least. I could be wrong but if history holds up, you might be seeing lower gas prices again soon. Lol. GLTA.