315 million ++ FCF in Q3
5 dollars higher wti in Q3 means about 90,000 boe add about 50 million to ARC fcf minus royalities.
So assume 45% of that is hedged, it is going to add another 25 million to the FCF, so it brings it up to 275 million. Add 15 million for losses due to facilities maintenance, and you are at 290 million.
Now add 75 cents a for mcf for gas, and you are way over 315 million in CF
This means Q3 debt will be 1.0 C CF and ARC will be spewing off 315 million in FCF a quater.
IMHO