GREY:CMLEF - Post by User
Comment by
JayBankson Jul 30, 2021 11:26pm
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Post# 33636575
RE:WHY WAS THIS TURD UP SO MUCH TODAY
RE:WHY WAS THIS TURD UP SO MUCH TODAYI would say it's buying to earnings. Next Thursday we get our quarterly which I will be very interested to see. It's likely a cheap gamble to jump on now and hope that the continued re-opening positivity effects earnings improvements, and as I talked about before, a well above average chance of a dividend increase announcement as thier payout ratio on the surface seems way to low.
As discussed a few weeks ago the last infered payout ratio was 45% they are suppose to pay above 90% and improving metrics seems to point to the fact they can go back to previous payout and double the dividend and still have a cushion of safety. Maybe they do that or start to increase gradually to create momentum. I had one stock that cut from 23.5 to 20 cents just increase back to 21 in the royalty space and I believe they could have gone back to atleast 23.5 quite easily. I'm not going to bank on a dividend increase, but I'd say odds are 60% we could see it or atleast commentary towards it. In turn that would cause a continued shareprice bump.
Without dividend news, we still likely see positive growth over the quarter, the question will be to what degree. As per the last statement we still weren't collecting 100% of what we are entitled to and we still may not be after this, but I'll bet that number is improving on reopening, but we likely aren't back to 100% collection until atleast the fall or winter.
I'd also say that if we get a poor report, the downside doesn't seem that far outside of a major surprise. So for a short term trader we are likely a good target for a power play bet. A doubling of the dividend may have $13-15 upside, a poor report may have $10.80-11 downside, a mediocre steady as you go report we continue in $11-11.60 range...
If we get a poor report I think I'm gone the next day, if it's mediocre I'll finally set my stop-loss and ride a bit longer to the next quarterly in November, if it's positive I'll set a realistic ask that is plausible we achieve... either way I feel like I'm no longer a long game holder just due to my personal setup and goals, it's just a case of selling into momentum or negativity...