A dig into the production targets for 2022 and 2023.........Just some quick thoughts on production, so excuse any errors.....the posts earlier got me thinking......
Given the 15,000 BOEPD 2022 production target on Xaviers presentation, I thought I would run through the figures and of course, the upsides.
Assuming the 4 news wells in the South West oil licenses commencing in Q4 21 deliver us with a total oil production of 2000 bopd in 2022.
2022 Production
2000 BOPD OIL (South West license areas)
+
3450 BOEPD GAS (Cascadura Deep 1) based on initial 20mmscf/d (can rise to 25)
+
400 BOPD LIQUIDS (Cascadura Deep 1)
+
6900 BOEPD GAS (Cascadura 1 ST) based on initial 40mmscf/d (can rise to 50)
+
1100 BOPD LIQUIDS (Cascadura 1 ST)
+
1700 BOEPD GAS (Coho-1)
Total = 15,550 BOEPD from when Cascadura is online.
However.....there is potential upside by year end !
Chinook-1 Cruse tie in
Possible extra 350 BOEPD to 500 BOEPD GAS
Royston-1 success case
Possible extra 5000 BOEPD GAS by year end
Casca-1 and Casca-Deep-1 continue cleaning up and finished 2022 year end +15mmscf/d which is extra 2550 BOEPD
So base case :
TXP will be producing circa
3700 BOEPD average in H1 2022
and
15,500 BOEPD average in H2 2022
And if Royston-1 succeeds, TXP should exit 2022 with circa 20,000 BOEPD production (or even 22,500 BOEPD if the Casca wells clean up more)
It should be noted that, apart from Royston-1 and Chinook-1 Cruse - ALL THE WELLS ARE DRILLED, PROVEN AND FLOW TESTED and behind pipe waiting to produce. Basically zero risk.
The upsides - Chinook-1 Cruse is on pressure test after flowing. Royston is to be drilled soon.
The thing that suddenly strikes is that there will be no infill drilling at Cascadura in H1 2022. TXP will utilise the new rig to drill the 4 oil production wells in the South West starting Q4 2021 and then will likely not use the new rig until we get into H2 2022, where they might use it for around 200 days drilling Guabine, then Steelhead then Krakken. I believe the rig contract is they only have to use it for 120 days per year minimum.
If they infill drill at Cascadura, year end 2022 production could hit 30,000 BOEPD.
If you want to crystal ball 2023
Infill drilling at Cascadura 200,000mmscf/d = 34,000 BOEPD
3 producing wells on Coho averaging 10mmscf/d = 5,000 BOEPD
Infill drilling at Royston 200,000mmscf/d = 34,000 BOEPD
South west oil license area production
Plus Guabine+Steelhead+Krakken.......... so TXP ends 2023 with say minimum 73,000 BOEPD or maybe anything up to 100,000 BOEPD. And thats excluding drilling the oil targets updip at Chinook.
Damn exciting if you ask me :) Thats a company literally throwing cash out and yet, still over 200 locations to drill in the South West and nearly 20 more new additional targets to drill at Ortoire, and some deep Herrera prospects in the South West on top of all that.
Massive production and yet still, very exciting upside from exploration.
There may be a boring 6 to 8 months between Royston-1 completing and the next "big" exploration well, as TXP complete the production infrastructure of Cascadura and hopefully start on the Royston production EIA and then production infrastructure - but my oh my......H2 2022 onwards this is going to be a wall of cash generating beast, drilling big upside exploration wells (over 21 targets), self funded and paying lovely dividends. During that boring 6 to 8 months there will be a move away by the hot short term money and more long tern investing money will come in taking a position ahead of the big production increases and then dividends from 2023 onwards.
I think I have just talked myself into buying some more........LOL :)