RE:RE:RE:RE:Expectations for Q2gudisgood wrote: Snowballgrowth wrote: gudisgood wrote:
Q2 results include about a month of Exelon profits. I also expect just about everything to have kept on progressing for the better, including drug sales and integration.
So, I'm expecting a decent Q2. Any Q2 result will not change my outlook on the long-term future of this company, however. Although it's always nice to see progress.
Q3 will be better: with three months of Exelon profits, plus an improved covid situation in LatAm (which hopefully keeps moving into current direction), and once again progress with drug sales and integration.
By the end of Q4, some of the market authorizations for Exelon will have transferred over. The integration will be completed. I'll also make a bold prediction: we'll have acquired another fairly meaningful drug/drug portfolio by the end of the year, perhaps even by the end of Q3.
Suggesting the share price stays around this area, we'll also have acquired a meaningful amount of our stock back by year's end. Technically, we can complete the NCIB in around 6 months. Whether this happens obviously depends on the price, available funds, and alternative investment opportunities.
That is to say, I get a positive feeling about our outlook for 2022. With any help from the overall economy (which has been totally working against us for the past couple of years...), it has the potential to be a great one.
The Q2 results will be interesting... but we're running a marathon here, not a sprint. :)
I like your comments, realistic. I think you have the right view, we are some impatient here, having see the company's capital unproductive for so long.
Understandable. The (very) positive reality is that we have now allocated a lot of that capital into productive assets. And this is when the magic starts happening.
Furthermore, even if we're unable to find an attractive drug portfolio to purchase in near future, we can currently buy back stock at an attractive valuation. Pre-Exelon we had roughly $3/share in cash and marketable securities, and $1.2/share in fund investments. We may also receive roughly $0.3/share from the tax situation... granted, there's some uncertainty about this.
So that's $4.5/share against the current price of $5.12.
The value of GBT is, according to the market, roughly $0.6/share, or $75 million. I'd be willing to bet it's significantly undervalued. To what extent? Time will tell.
Just to add, let's assume the intrinsic value of the company is $7/share (this is not my valuation, by the way, just an example). When GUD buys back its stock, we (the shareholders) buy $7 for $5.12. This is not a bad situation to be in. Furthermore, we have Goodman, who knows GUD better than any one of us, and has proven himself to be a skillful capital allocator, doing the buying for us.
And say the intrinsic value is higher than that - perhaps significantly so? Not bad at all.