RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Summary of Expectations Request PleaseTH has said they will determine the MYD at the end of 2021 and will share with investors some preliminary data sometime in Q4. So, we should hear about data before they determine the MTD.
I think it is pretty safe to assume that whatever it is they have seen so far in the trial, they like it. But the range of possible things to like is large so we cannot yet know whether the good news they ultimately share with us will be just kinda, sorta OK or if it will be "Wow! that's amazing" good news. Or something in between those two extremes.
What I find amazing is the lack of energy around the stock this close to when they will be telling us news that almost certainly will be good on some level. And I wonder if there will be as much energy as warranted around the stock after they announce whatever they announce on cancer. For reasons that are not always easy to explain, TH does not always get the appropriate reaction to news. The announcement of the general NASH move is the prime example of that. It was a huge development for them and was later backed up by the FDA and EMA and it is as if it never happened. They created sizable value for shareholders out of thin air by getting a phase III general NASH trial ready to go and the market just yawned.
Another example is the Canaccord analyst starting coverage with a Buy rating and a $12 price target on 12/01/19 based on Trogarzo sales, new formulations of Egrifta to help its sales and HIV NASH but now has a Hold rating and a $3 price target despite the succesful move to the much larger general NASH market, the creation of a phase III protocol that received approval of the EMA and FDA and getting a Fast Track designation on cancer while being well into the first part of the phase I cancer trial which has huge implications for TH and patients with this terrible disease, with apparently no safety issues arising. The company has signalled it is focusing on this cancer opportunity, highlighting to me at least that they are very encouraged by what they see, and the market really does not yet care very much.
So, with a really weak analyst team following the stock, don't be surprised if we are blown away by whatever the preliminary data says and the stock does not even come close to reacting in a manner that fits the info shared. If few are paying attention, the reaction may be good but still more muted than it should be. TH is running out of time to get investors to pay attention to what they are up to in cancer. They really need to build some excitement around this data release.
At the moment, however, we are almost an hour into the trading day and less than 1,300 shares have traded on NASDAQ. That tells you a lot about the current state of affairs regarding excitement around cancer.
AMoschitto wrote: Connected to this thread, i know JFM said we would be close to double the docetaxel MTD this next week according to his best estimates... I'm curious what we expect the company to communicate about the MTD? Will they use this as a chance to share multiple points of good news from now to Q4 data and safety results. Or will they wait all the way until we have all that info and do it all at once?
Is it normal for a company to update the market on an MTD prior to the safety and data efficacy?
PL has said we will update everyone as soon as we can and as we hit milestones. Establishing an MTD is a milestone we would love to hear and I wouldn't think relies on the safety/efficacy data being totally ferreted out to release the data responsibly. I could be wrong tho.